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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - April 16, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – April 16, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – April 16, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Iran Attacks Israel

  • The Gulf states are pushing for deescalation to protect geopolitical and economic stability in the region. During Iran’s attack, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE opened their airspace to allow Israel and its partners to shoot down incoming projectiles. There is speculation that the air forces of Jordan and Saudi Arabia were directly involved in Israel’s defensive maneuver, though neither country has explicitly confirmed these accounts. Both face domestic tensions over their involvement due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and wide support for Palestinians among their citizenry. Also of concern is the economic impact a regional conflict could have on oil revenues for exporters like Saudi Arabia. Taken together, these issues pose a complicated diplomatic problem for Gulf states attempting to balance western support (mainly from the U.S.) with tenuous regional relations. 
    • Interfor Analysis: Saudi Arabia and Jordan have both significantly downplayed their role in the joint air defense operation. Jordan, in particular, has already faced months of protests from pro-Palestine residents, including many from the country’s substantial Palestinian population, and adamantly does not want to be seen as actively defending Israel. We are expecting strong Jordanian government statements against Israel in the coming days to counter the perception that the government is too close to Israel.
    • Prior to the Iranian attack, there were reports that Qatar and Kuwait may have forbidden the US from using their military bases in the two countries to defend Israel from an Iranian offensive. Since the successful regional air defense operation, the US seems to have intentionally avoided revealing what precise resources were used, in particular which aircraftswere used out of which bases and/or carriers. We assess that US officials’ vagueness on this point is likely intended to protect regional allies like Qatar and Kuwait, whose populations are significantly anti-Israel, from being seen as involved in Israel’s defense. 
    • A lack of detail, at least initially, also served to create the perception that Israel’s own aircraft and air defense infrastructure were primarily responsible for the defensive operation’s success. It has since been revealed that the US likely shot down more drones and missiles than Israel. 

Israel-Gaza

  • Hamas rejected the latest ceasefire proposal. Israeli officials have posited that Hamas is exploiting tensions with Iran to avoid making a hostage deal. This comes after recent reports that Hamas could not find or does not have as many living hostages as previously thought. In contrast to the other failed rounds of negotiations, the latest rejection follows Iran’s recent attack and continued fire from Hezbollah into northern Israel. The negotiations are still being brokered by Qatar and Egypt, though the Gaza war may be, at least briefly, overshadowed by the potential for a larger conflict with Iran.

International Affairs

  • Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has urged Washington to uphold its commitment to support Ukraine following Iran’s attack on Israel this weekend. Zelenskyy highlighted the regional and global threat posed by Iran, as evidenced by the use of Iranian Shahed drones and missiles against Israel, which have been repeatedly seen in Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. Several Ukrainian officials echoed Zelenskyy’s sentiments, issuing direct appeals to US Republicans to back up their words with action. These appeals come amid wavering Western military support for Ukraine. Several potential sources of weapons from western allies have been stalled recently. Congress is newly reviewing separate bills to provide aid to Ukraine and Israel, after a joint-funding bill had been delayed by partisan politics for the last several weeks. Additionally, support from key European partners has waned, as evidenced by Germany’s refusal to provide Taurus cruise missiles to counter Russian attacks. 
  • President Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida partnered on two trilateral deals, with AUKUS and the Philippines, to counter China’s influence in the South China Sea. The US and Japan announced they will enter a new era of military cooperation to, alongside Australia, develop a new air missile defense network. This will mark the first networked system of air, missile, and defense architecture shared by the three powers. On its tail, Biden and Kishida announced a cooperation agreement with the Philippines to enhance economic and security relations between the three countries. The agreement includes expanded access to Philippine military bases for the US and Japan. Together, these two agreements represent a noted push by Washington and Tokyo to consolidate regional security networks ahead of any Chinese aggression.
  • Aid agencies warn of potential mass death from starvation in Sudan after a year of internal conflict. Their representatives on the ground have slammed the international community for largely ignoring Sudan’s crisis. At present, militant group, RSF, has overrun much of the capital and the Darfur region. Previously allies in overturning Sudan’s internationally recognized government in 2021, the military and the RSF have now been trading bullets, leaving mass civilian casualties in their wake. Both sides have been accused of rampant sexual violence and war crimes by the International Criminal Court’s prosector and are currently being investigated. Aid agencies on the ground claim the violence in Sudan is the worst the country has seen since its Darfur in the 2000s which the US declared a genocide. 

Espionage

  • A former US ambassador was sentenced to 15 years in federal prison after pleading guilty to spying for Cuba for decades. Manuel Rocha worked for the US State Department for over 20 years, holding top posts in Argentina and Mexico as well as the ambassadorship to Bolivia. After leaving State, Rocha went on to be a special advisor to the commander of US Southern Command and, recently, has presented as publicly pro-Trump and anti-Cuba, possiblyto hide his allegiances. Intelligence officials have not disclosed details pertaining to exactly how long they’ve known (the Department of Justice admits to working on the case since at least 2022), what classified information Rocha may have had access to, or the extent to which he compromised national security. Rocha is suspected to have worked for the Cubans since at least 1981. His case is disturbingly reminiscent of another high-level Cuban spy, Ana Montes, arrested in 2001.

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