Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – April 23, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – April 23, 2024

Global Security Matters

Israel

• On Friday morning local time, a suspected Israeli strike hit an Iranian Air Force base near the city of Isfahan, known to be the location of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Though the strike has not been claimed by Israel, it is widely considered to be Israel’s response to the unprecedented direct strike on its territory by Tehran last week. The US and Israel’s allies in the Gulf had been pressuring Netanyahu to take a more reserved stance and move toward de-escalation. 
  
  • Interfor Analysis: For now, Israel and Iran seem content to leave things where they are. It should be noted, however, that this strike targeted air defense assets which would be used to protect the Natanz nuclear facility in the event of an aerial attack. So, while this strike did not target a nuclear facility, Israel has partially proven its ability to hit Iran’s nuclear sites if the Islamic Republic further escalates the conflict, and it eliminated (at least temporarily) on obstacle it would have had to tackle at the same time as an attack on Natanz itself.
  • Israel had the option to target and destroy sites tied to Iran’s drone or ballistic missile production or launch capabilities, either of which could have been easily explained as linked to Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel. Instead, Israel conducted a very limited strike – from a damage perspective – but one that successfully targeted a more closely guarded Iranian national security interest, the protection of its nuclear program. From this perspective, Israel seems to have demonstrated their military capability to threaten critical assets without doing so much damage or causing casualties in such a way that would provoke an Iranian response.
• Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, the head of the Israel Defense Forces intelligence directorate, resigned on Monday over the military failure on October 7th. Haliva is the most senior intelligence official to step down since the deadly attack and potentially sets the stage for more of Israel’s top security officials to step down. Since October 7th, the leadership in the military and intelligence community have been widely criticized for their failure to prevent the attack and were expected to resign. However, most senior officials have remained in their positions due to the active conflict in Gaza and the need to maintain stability in government and the military. 

International Affairs

• Iraqi armed group Kataib Hezbollah launched drone attacks on US military targets in Iraq and Syria. This is the first such strike on US military personnel in three months, since a drone attack by pro-Iran militia forces killed three US soldiers in the region in January. Kataib Hezbollah claims that they have resumed attacks due to a lack of movement on the United States’ complete military withdrawal from Iraq. There was no report of casualties or significant damage from this weekend’s attack, which, interestingly, came just days after Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani’s departure from the White House. 

• Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Monday that his country would be ready to host NATO nuclear weapons in the face of Russian aggression. In December, Russia announced it would relocate its nuclear arsenal to Belarus. Poland has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. Duda’s suggestion comes amid widespread hesitation in the EU to give Ukraine advanced air defense systems. NATO member states, including Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, are also increasingly concerned with Russian sabotage against European facilities used to train Ukrainian troops. While the movement of nuclear weapons has not yet been discussed by the whole of NATO, it would not be the first time a member state was supplied nuclear weapons to deploy and store.

• The US agreed to withdraw its troops from Niger, throwing the status of the country’s relatively new US air base in question. Since a military junta took power in a coup last year, Niger’s leaders have been pushing for the US to leave. If the US air base is to close, temporarily or otherwise, it may pose a significant setback to counterterrorism operations in the Sahel. State Department officials, however, have stated they remain hopeful for a cooperative relationship with Niger despite strained relations with its new government. 

Espionage

• The UK and Germany each took legal action against several of their citizens on suspicion of spying for China. In the UK, two men were charged with espionage after being arrested in March. According to the Sunday Times, one of these men had access to the UK’s Minister of State for Security and Chair of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee in Parliament, posing “serious” risk to national security. In Germany, three men were arrested this week. The German government alleges that at least one of the suspects operated a front company which worked with German research organizations on projects such as engine designs for combat vessels. The government alleges that the company was used to pass on sensitive information to China. This comes just days after two German-Russian nationals were arrested in Germany on charges of spying for Russia and sabotaging aid to Ukraine, raising serious concerns for European security. 

Resources

• US Department of State Travel Advisories
• CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters.
• Our most recent blog post discusses private security on college campuses.