Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – April 30, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – April 30, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Israel – Gaza

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Hamas to quickly accept Israel’s “extraordinarily generous” ceasefire package. As Israel is mounting preparations for a ground operation in Rafah, international actors are pushing Hamas to accept the latest deal. The current proposal is for the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails and a “period of sustained calm.” Israel may also be open to negotiations for a return of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza. This comes amid increasing domestic pressure on Netanyahu’s government to secure the release of the remaining 133 hostages. This week, Hamas released proof of life videos for three Israeli hostages, two of which are American citizens. If Hamas does not accept the deal, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz has said that Israel will go forward with its ground operation in Rafah.
  
  • Interfor Analysis: Blinken was in Saudi Arabia yesterday to discuss prospective Saudi-Israeli normalization. Blinken indicated that the normalization deal was nearly complete. It is possible that this timing is not a coincidence, and that KSA has moved forward with this talks in parallel to developments in the ceasefire talks. KSA previously suggested that Israel needed to chart a path toward a possible two state solution in order for normalization to be on the table.
• The ICC may issue arrest warrants for Israel’s top officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Hamas’ leaders. To date, this remains a rumor — and one that could lead to a wave of antisemitism around the world, according to an Israeli official. On Monday, a White House spokesperson said the US does not support the ICC’s investigation, likely due to concerns that ICC action may cause Israel to pull back from ceasefire negotiations. 
  
  • It is important to note that Israel, though a signatory of the Rome Statue which created the ICC, never ratified it in the Knesset. Thus, Israel is not beholden to ICC rulings nor does the ICC have a significantenforcement mechanism which it could leverage against indicted Israeli officials. It is unlikely that arrest warrants for top Israeli leaders will result in an official court proceeding, though it may worsen Israel’s already-damaged international reputation and further delay a temporary ceasefire. 

International Affairs

• President Biden signed a $95 billion aid package for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine. The majority of the package will go toward bolstering Ukraine’s defensive against Russia. Approximately $61 billion is reserved for replenishing US stockpiles, procuring defense technology, purchasing defense materials for Ukraine, and ensuring oversight of Ukraine aid and operations. Israel will receive $26.4 billion in assistance, primarily to further bolster their advanced weapons systems including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Iron Beam. About $9 billion of Israel’s $26.4b will be used for humanitarian operations in Gaza. Taiwan will receive approximately $8 billion to develop a submarine industrial base and to replenish stocks. The bill comes as Ukraine struggles to beat back the Russian offensive and Israel faces increasing tensions with Iran and its proxies. 

• Germany charged seven (7) foreign nationals with funding a terrorist organization, among other charges. The suspects, arrested last summer, are accused of allegedly plotting terrorist attacks on behalf of the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISIS-K). This is the same group, an Afghanistan-based offshoot of IS, which claimed responsibility for the attack on Moscow’s concert hall in March. 

• The Houthis continue attacks on vessels traveling through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. On Friday, they fired ballistic missiles at a Panamanian oil tanker allegedly linked to Russia, causing minor damage to the vessel. Though attacks have dropped in recent weeks, shipping traffic through the Red Sea is still below normal levels. American officials have speculated that the US-led counter-Houthi operation in the Red Sea has caused the Houthis to run low on weapons supplies. However, continued attacks and the Houthis’ commitment to continue until Israel stops its war in Gaza cast doubt on this assumption.

• Ecuador filed a complaint at the top UN court alleging Mexico illegally attempted to grant asylum to a former Ecuadorian Vice President and interfered in its internal political affairs. Earlier this month, Ecuador raided the Mexican embassy in Quito under the suspicion it was housing former-VP Jorge Glas, who is facing corruption charges. Mexico filed its own complaint with the ICJ, claiming the raid was illegal, and broke off diplomatic relations with Ecuador. Video footage of the raid shows Ecuadorian police scaling the embassy walls and forcibly entering through windows. Hearings on Mexico’s case begin today.

• Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit France, Hungary, and Serbia next week, potentially signaling Chinese efforts to increase influence in key EU states.  This will be Xi’s first European visit in five years and represents a possible shift in its neutrality stance. China has been accused of providing financial and technological resources to Russia since the war began. US officials will be monitoring closely for any developments in Chinese influence in Europe that could threaten US geopolitical strategy. 

Resources

• US Department of State Travel Advisories
• CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters.
• Our most recent blog post discusses private security on college campuses.