Blog

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - August 20, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – August 20, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – August 20, 2024 

Global Security Matters

United States

  • Thousands of pro-Palestinian protestors gathered outside the DNC on Monday. The march happened as President Biden arrived, with many protestors chanting anti-Biden and anti-Israel slogans specifically. The Secret Service and Chicago Police Department have implemented heavy security at the event, particularly following the assassinationattempt on former President Trump in July. Thus far, the “March on the DNC” protest has attracted notably fewer supporters than anticipated and, thankfully, has not escalated into violence yet. 

Israel  – Gaza – Iran

  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Cairo today to push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Following the negotiations in Doha last week and a visit to Israel yesterday, Blinken announced that PM Netanyahu had agreed to narrow the remaining gaps between Israeli and Hamas demands, leaving it “incumbent” on Hamas to accept the deal. However, there are reports from Israeli officials accusing Netanyahu of backing the deal only because he believes Hamas will reject it. Among the remaining disagreements are Israeli control of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors and the timeline for a permanent ceasefire. Secretary Blinken has implied that the stakes of these negotiations are higher than previous rounds due to the threat of active conflict with Hezbollah and/or Iran. 
    • Very mixed messaging has emerged from the past week’s ceasefire talks. Late last week, Secretary Blinken and other US officials were channeling high levels of optimism about the likelihood of a ceasefire. Israeli officials, primarily off the record, told journalists they were less optimistic. Now, yet again, Hamas is backing away from the talks, likely as a negotiating tactic, and Netanyahu is setting the table for Hamas to be blamed for a failure to reach a ceasefire. 
    • A ceasefire is still possible, but it is worth noting that public statements coming out of these talks, both on and off the record, are themselves part of the negotiation and not necessarily an accurate reflection of the state of the talks.
    • In the meantime, Iran seems to still be holding off on any direct action against Israel until ceasefire talks fully collapse. At this point, it is safe to say that this posture is at least as much a reflection of Iranian apprehension toward attacking Israel as it is a strategic decision to make space for ceasefire talks. 
  • An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon on Saturday resulted in the deaths of ten Syrian workers, including two children. The strike targeted a residential building, reportedly linked to Hezbollah. This military action was the most recent escalation following the Israeli strike on a top Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) claimed the airstrike aimed to disrupt Hezbollah’s military capabilities and harm their capacity to continue their assault on northern Israel. 
  • Hamas and Islamic Jihad have claimed responsibility for a botched terror attack in Tel Aviv on Sunday, in which a suicide vest prematurely detonated. The attack took place in a crowded area, resulting in numerous injuries and significant damage to surrounding buildings and vehicles. The assailant was carrying a backpack filled with explosives, which detonated prematurely, killing him in the process. Israeli officials claimed it was a miracle more people were not hurt, noting that terrorist’s intended target, were it reached, would have likely killed or wounded many more people. In response to the incident, police have initiated an investigation to identify those involved and to evaluate the broader security implications. Shin Bet, Israeli’s internal security forces, are investigating a potential link between the attack and Iran and Hezbollah. This marks the first suicide bombing attempt in Tel Aviv in 18 years, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of such attacks in the region.

International Affairs

  • Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided near the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea on Monday. The Chinese Coast Guard accused a Philippine vessel of intentionally ramming into a Chinese ship, while Philippine officials reported that their vessels were damaged due to “unlawful maneuvers” by Chinese ships. The collision resulted in significant damage to at least two Philippine coast guard vessels. One ship, the BRP Cape Engano, suffered a hole approximately 13 centimeters in size, while another vessel, BRP Bagacay, was reportedlyrammed twice by a Chinese ship, according to the Filipino National Security Council director general. Fortunately, no injuries were reported among the Filipino crew, who were on a mission to resupply Philippine-held islands in the Spratly group. 
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that the incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was meant to create a defensive buffer zone. Now fighting on three fronts — eastern Ukraine, the Black Sea, and Kursk — the Ukrainian counteroffensive appears aimed at dividing the attention and manpower of the Russian military and disrupting Putin’s propaganda in Moscow. On Monday, Ukrainian forces destroyed three bridges in Kursk, inhibiting routes for Russian troops to move into the area and attempt recapture. The move is a gamble as it further stretches Ukrainian troops across the 600+ mile front. If Ukraine can hold Kursk, though, it will not only challenge Russia’s military position but also potentially create a bargaining chip in future negotiations. 
  • Natural disasters have hit Bermuda and Greece hard this week. Hurricane Ernesto struck Bermuda on Saturday with winds up to 85 mph and waves reaching 35 ft. The category 1 storm was a rarity — fewer than 12 hurricanes have made landfall in Bermuda since the mid-19th century — raising concerns that higher ocean temperatures is causing a hyperactive hurricane season. Additionally, destructive wildfires ripped through Greece late last week. The fires killed one woman and burned thousands of hectares of land. Greece experienced its hottest summer on record this year, drying out the land and making it more susceptible to wildfires. 
  • Several Indian port workers’ unions called for a strike beginning on August 28, potentially threatening to clog already-congested ports along Asian and European coasts. Approximately 20,000 workers are expected to participate in the strike, demanding pension benefits and better wages. If the strike lasts more than 2-3 days, global shipping could face serious delays and losses in the billions. 

Cyber News

Resources