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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - August 27, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – August 27, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – August 27, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Israel  – Gaza – Iran

  • Israel launched what the IDF describes as a “preemptive” strike against Hezbollah missile sites on Sunday morning after receiving intelligence that Hezbollah planned to attack Israel with long-range weaponry. In response, Hezbollah fired over 300 rockets and drones into northern Israel, though most were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. The Israeli strikes resulted in one fatality and several injuries in southern Lebanon, while two individuals were injured in northern Israel due to Hezbollah’s counterattacks. 
    • While at first this appeared to be a high-risk escalation scenario, both parties seem to be marketing the incident as a military success to their respective publics and neither seems interested in further escalation(for the moment). Both Israel and Hezbollah are rumored to have communicated through backchannels that they consider this specific chapter of their confrontation closed and wish to avoid escalation to all-out war.
  • Zooming out, this incident fits within the broader trend of temporarily escalations, followed by reversion to baseline tension levels. That baseline remains elevated, compared to where the region was a year ago, and we will likely continue to see exchanges of fire that risk intense escalation until the Gaza conflict is resolved. 
  • That, of course, is not to suggest that the region will be indefinitely calm if a ceasefire is reached; just that a ceasefire would allow all actors to revert to a more normal, pre-Gaza war level of tension. Israel may be an exception, however; without significant shifts in regional geopolitics and power structures(looking at Iranian foreign policy and support for Hezbollah and Hamas), Israel will almost definitely remain in a more heightened state of alert – leaving them far likelier to take preemptive action against security threats – compared to their pre-10/7 posture.

International Affairs

  • On Monday, Russia carried out a significant attack on Ukraine, launching drones and missiles across at least 15 regions, including Kyiv. Ukrainian officials described the assault as a “nightmare,” forcing residents in the capital to take shelter in subway stations. This attack came after recent strikes during Ukraine’s Independence Day, which led to widespread power outages. The latest attack targeted energy facilities, aiming to spread fear and cut off electricity. One Ukrainian man died in the Dnipropetrovsk region and several injuries were reported in Mykolaiv. 

  • Afghanistan’s Taliban government introduced new laws that strictly regulate women’s public behavior, including banning their voices and bare faces. Approved by supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, these measures are part of a broader effort to “enforce virtue and prevent vice.” Women must fully veil themselves in public, are prohibited from singing or reading aloud, and have restricted interactions with unrelated men. Women who disobey these laws can be detained and/or punished in whatever way “deemed appropriate” by the Taliban. The laws also curtail media freedom by banning images of living beings and music, while mandating prayer times. The U.N. has expressed concern over these regulations and their impact on women and girls. The Taliban, unsurprisingly, rejected these concerns. These “virtue” laws are just the latest step in curtailing women’s rights since they came to power in 2021. 
  • On Sunday, a Syrian man confessed to fatally stabbing three people at Germany’s Festival of Diversity in Solingen on Friday. German prosecutors are accusing the man of being connected to the Islamic State (IS), after the terrorist group claimed responsibility for the attack on their news broadcast. However, IS did not provide evidence to support this claim. The tragic event is likely to inflame xenophobia in Germany. Also of note, it is the latest in a series of attacks claimed by IS and/or its affiliates (IS-K, ISIL, etc.) in Europe (foiled attack on Taylor Swift’s Vienna concerts and the destructive attack on Moscow’s Crocus Hall), potentially indicating that IS and other terror groups have been emboldened to target western populations around the world. 
  • France opened a terrorism investigation  after Saturday’s violent attack on the Beth Yaacov synagogue in La Grande-Motte, near Montpellier. Multiple fires were set at two entrances of the synagogue while people were inside, and two vehicles in the parking lot were also burned. A police officer was injured when a propane gas tank in one of the vehicles exploded. Despite the severity of the attack, all five individuals inside the synagogue at the time remained unharmed. Surveillance footage captured a male suspect fleeing the scene carrying a Palestinian flag and a weapon, leading prosecutors to classify the incident as an attempted assassination connected to a terrorist group. In response, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has deployed 200 police officers to locate the suspect. President Emmanuel Macron denounced the attack as a “terrorist act” and assured the public that all efforts are being made to apprehend the perpetrator.

Cyber News

  • Pavel Durov, the Russian billionaire founder of the encrypted messaging app Telegram, was arrested in France. Local media sources indicate that the arrest was linked to a search warrant concerning the app’s alleged involvement in criminal activities, such as money laundering, fraud, drug trafficking, and facilitating terrorist communications. Durov has also been criticized for failing to curb the spread of child pornography on Telegram. While President Macron claims the decision was not political but the result of an independent investigation into the platform, Durov’s arrest sparked outrage in Russia and skepticism in the UAE (where Durov runs Telegram). Of note, Telegram is widely used by Russian and Ukrainian troops, as well as political dissidents. Moscow has made previous attempts to uncover the identities and content of these users and likely views France’s arrest of Durov as further interference in the war with Ukraine.
  • Iran-linked hackers have targeted the WhatsApp accounts of U.S. officials, including those in President Biden’s administration and former President Trump’s team, aiming to gather intelligence and disrupt communications. The cyberattacks involved sending malicious links designed to compromise recipients’ accounts. This investigation, by Meta, is the latest in a series of incidents of suspected Iranian influence operations targeting the US election.

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