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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - November 26, 2024- new version

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – November 26, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – November 26, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Israel – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

  • A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah may be signed as soon as this afternoon, according to several reports. The US-brokered deal would entail an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, the retreat of all Hezbollah assets north of the Litani River, and the deployment of the Lebanese army and UN observer forces to southern Lebanon. Israeli officials claim that they will also receive a letter from the United States affirming Israel’s right to freedom of action should Hezbollah violate the agreement. Both sides will be overseen by an administrative committee of US and French officials tasked with ensuring the implementation of the ceasefire and UNSC Resolution 1701.
    • This ceasefire will hopefully enable Lebanese and Israeli civilians living in affected areas to return home, but it is unlikely to significantly reduce regional tensions. Israel has achieved major military objectives against Hezbollah and sacrifices little by ending the war now. Still, we will be watching to see if/how quickly Iran moves to re-supply Hezbollah as a sign of what’s to come in the regional conflict.
  • On Sunday, Hezbollah launched a massive barrage of approximately 250 rockets into Israel, targeting areas including Tel Aviv and the Ashdod naval base in southern Israel. This escalation was in response to recent Israeli airstrikes in Beirut that killed at least 29 people and injured dozens more. The IDF reported that many of the rockets were intercepted by missile defense systems, though some hit residential areas, causing damage and injuries. This marks one of Hezbollah’s most intense assaults since the conflict began, reflecting its pledge to retaliate against Israeli attacks on Lebanon. 
    • In prior conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel, Hezbollah has launched a final, large assault against Israel prior to a ceasefire being signed. This strike may signal that the reported ceasefire is indeed imminent. 
  • On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on charges of “using starvation as a weapon of war” and “murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” It also posthumously issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military wing leader Mohammed Deif. The ICC has 124 member states, all of which must now choose whether to enforce the arrest warrants. Several nations, including Canada, the Netherlands, Ireland, and France, have said they would arrest Netanyahu if he comes into their country. (Note that France has since retracted its statement.) US officials have widely condemned the ruling, with several prominent Republicans threatening to take action against the ICC and states who attempt to enforce its ruling.  
    • France retracting its statement affirming the ICC arrest warrants following pressure by the US to avoid alienating Israel in order to help the Lebanon ceasefire process. Just last week, Israel reportedly wanted France to be removed from ceasefire negotiations. This move by Macron may represent an improvement in Israeli-French relations following the past year of strain between Israel and many European countries. Likewise, Netanyahu’s agreement to a ceasefire may be the first step in moderating relations with Europe.
  • Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a 28-year-old Israeli-Moldovan rabbi serving as Chabad’s envoy to the UAE, was found dead in the United Arab Emirates after being abducted on November 21. Israeli authorities have condemned his death as a “heinous antisemitic terror incident,” with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledging that Israel will seek justice for Kogan’s murder. The UAE’s Interior Ministry has confirmed the arrest of three Uzbek nationals in connection with his death. 
    • Initial Israeli reports strongly insinuated that Iran was linked to the plot to kill Kogan. Israeli sources have since dialed down those remarks — and Iran has denied any involvement — but whatever the investigation yields related to responsibility for Kogan’s murder could have an impact on the ongoing regional conflict. As of now theories point either to an Iranian connection or an affiliation with the Islamic State in Khorasan (IS-K).
    • Over the las tyear, reports emerged that Iran plotted attacks on global Jewish targets, including a Chabad building in Greece, as an alternative to direct attacks on Israel. Especially with Trump coming to power in the US, Iran will increasingly try to calibrate its counter-Israel strategy to avoid provoking a major response. Attacks like the murder of Kogan could fit that profile, but again, we have yet to see clear evidence supporting the theory that Iran hired the assailants or otherwise contributed to the plot.

International Affairs

  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says she will urge President-elect Trump to reconsider his planned 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada. Trump plans to implement tariffs in response to what he views as Mexico’s failure to assist the US in curbing illegal immigration and the flow of illicit substances. Sheinbaum stressed the potental consequences of high inflation and low employment. The President-elect has also threatened to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, leading some analysts to point to serious consequences for American consumers and manufacturers. 
  • In Uruguay’s presidential runoff on November 24, Yamandú Orsi of the center-left Broad Front coalition emerged victorious over Álvaro Delgado of the ruling National Party. With voter turnout nearing 90% in this compulsory election, Orsi garnered 49% of the vote, while Delgado received 46%, signaling a notable political shift. This win marks the Broad Front’s return to power after a five-year hiatus, reflecting a public preference for moderate and pragmatic leadership that prioritizes economic stability alongside social welfare. Orsi’s success aligns with a broader regional trend this year of pivoting away from incumbent parties. Notably, Uruguay’s election stood out for its civility, emphasizing substantive policy debates over divisive rhetoric. 
  • The Russian military has reportedly captured James Scott Rhys Anderson, a British national fighting with Ukrainian forces in the partially occupied Kursk region, according to the Russian state news agency Tass. Anderson, a former signalman in the British Army, had joined Ukraine’s International Legion and served as an instructor for Ukrainian troops. In a video released by Tass, Anderson expressed reluctance about his deployment to the Kursk area, suggesting he was sent there against his will. While this report has not been independently verified, if true, it would be the first instance of a Western national captured on Russian soil during the current conflict.
  • Russia launched a large drone assault against Ukraine overnight, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting less than half of the approximately 188 projectiles. The attack injured ten people in Kharkiv, where significant damage to civilian infrastructure was reported, including a fire on a central street. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported successful strikes on Russian targets, including an oil depot in the Kaluga region, as well as additional sites in Bryansk and Kursk.

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