| Middle East → On Monday, the IDF launched its ground offensive in Gaza City. The IDF claims that this operation, Gideon’s Chariot Part 2, will target the last governing strongholds Hamas has within Gaza. However, the operation poses severe dangers to civilians in the area and could also threaten the remaining 48 hostages (approximately 20 of whom are believed to be alive). The operation proceeded despite internal opposition from IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Director of the Mossad David Barnea, and the Director of Shin Bet (internal security) Ronen Bar. Notably, this same group also reportedly voiced opposition to Israel’s strike in Doha last week. Prime Minister Netanyahu is increasingly operating against the guidance of his security establishment. To some degree, he may want to cultivate a perception of being an unpredictable regional actor, to discourage rivals from threatening Israel. Shocking moves like the attack on Hamas in Doha also help him shore up support from his right flank, which plays a significant role in keeping him in power. → Following Israel’s strike in Doha last week, the US and Qatar are reportedly working to finalize an “enhanced defense cooperation” agreement. President Trump reportedly claimed he was not made aware of the Israeli strike in advance and will meet with the Qatari Prime Minister in New York on Friday to discuss the impending security agreement. Qatar has been angling for a similar commitment by the US for some time, enabling it to assert its role as a key regional ally for the US. Qatar is playing this moment quite strategically, choosing a restrained response and leveraging Israel’s attack to demand closer ties to the US. With or without this additional agreement with the US, we expect Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to increase cooperation among themselves and to flirt with closer ties to China, Russia, and other alternatives to the US. International Affairs → Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated on Tuesday that Belarus are conducting joint military exercises with Russia. Belarus currently hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons and intermediate-range missiles. This comes just days after Poland claims it shot down several Russian drones that had entered its airspace last Wednesday. In response, President Trump vowed to defend NATO territory and, jointly, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry to enhance defense capabilities on NATO’s eastern edge. → Last week, youth demonstrators took to the streets in Nepal in protest of a government-imposed social media ban and existing frustration with corruption, unemployment, and inequity. In recent years, a large portion of Nepalese youth have left the country in search of economic opportunity, with their families at home relying on remittances for income. Protestors set fire to politicians’ homes and official buildings; state security forces reportedly opened fire on crowds, killing at least 70. The protests ultimately toppled the government, with the Prime Minister resigning late last week. Sushila Karki, a former Supreme Court justice, is now leading an interim government after being elected via Discord. → On Thursday, South Sudanese Vice President Riek Machar was charged with “murder, treason, and crimes against humanity” following accusations that he was involved with the White Army Militia in northeastern South Sudan. Machar has been under house arrest since March. Critics claim that Machar’s arrest may drag the country back into civil conflict. Machar and his political rival, President Salva Kiir, have been leading a unity government since 2018, after a civil war killed approximately 400,000. → The ICC formally charged Ugandan leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Joseph Kony, with 39 counts of “war crimes and crimes against humanity.” The LRA has reportedly been attacking villages in Uganda and surrounding countries since the 1980s and is known for its use of child soldiers and female enslavement. The ICC issued a warrant for Kony in absentia, meaning he cannot actually be tried until he is in ICC custody. US → Last Wednesday, conservative activist and founder of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk, was assassinated while at a speaking engagement at Utah Valley University. The shooter allegedly fired from a rooftop approximately 200 yards away, hitting Kirk in the neck. Kirk’s alleged assassin, Tyler Robinson, reportedly confessed on Discord before being turned in by his family to the police. See Interfor CEO Don Aviv’s commentary on event security here. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. See Interfor’s analysis of the shooting at 345 Park Avenue in Manhattan here. See our most recent talk on the rise of ideological violence in the United States and how corporate security professionals are meeting the challenge, featuring former Director of the U.S. Secret Service, Mark Sullivan. Our latest analysis looks at the Israel-Iran conflict; beyond the headlines. See also our second interview with Tom Hardin, one of the most active informants in securities fraud history. |
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