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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - September 17, 2024

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – September 17, 2024

Global Security and Policy Insights – September 17, 2024

Global Security Matters

Israel  – Gaza – Iran

  • DEVELOPING: Over 2,000 pagers – all belonging to Hezbollah-linked individuals – exploded simultaneously across Lebanon Tuesday afternoon. Very little is known as of yet, but the incident is being viewed an Israeli attack on Hezbollah, likely led by Israeli intelligence agencies. According to Iranian news source, Mehr News, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon was injured by one of the pager explosions. The incident comes after reports of a thwarted assassination attempt against a former Israeli intelligence official. 
    • We are still learning about this incident. It is highly unlikely that Mossad or any other entity will take credit for this event publicly, especially in the near term. 
  • More important questions revolve around what role an operation like this plays in Israel’s counter-Hezbollah strategy. Is this meant to precede some larger Israeli action against Hezbollah, or was it meant to disrupt Hezbollah operations in advance of some planned attack on Israel? How does Israel expect Hezbollah and Iran to respond?
  • Prior to this development, Israel’s War Cabinet voted on Sunday evening to expand its war aims to include securing the northern border against Hezbollah and bringing tens of thousands of Israelis back to their homes in the north. The move signaled greater potential for escalation in the north — such speculation has ebbed and flowed for nearly a year — and some analysts believe the decision reflects a shift in priorities from Hamas to Hezbollah. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has made it clear that they will continue to fire projectiles into Israel until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Following recent weeks’ pessimism regarding a potential ceasefire in Gaza, Israel may be calculating that their efforts are better spent anticipating an escalation with Hezbollah. 
    • Several Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, have said they have lost faith in US-supported efforts to resolve tensions with Hezbollah via diplomacy. Recent public pollingshows a greater willingness among Israelis to open the northern front, though some officials and analysts question whether those polled were led to appropriately consider the shape and scale of a prospective war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is believed to have over 100,000 rockets, many of which can reach deepinto Israel. After 11 months of fighting in Gaza, Israel’s weapons supply and manpower are somewhat depleted. To successfully defeat Hezbollah, Israel would likely need to launch a preemptive strike targeting weapons depots, though a strike-first policy may further isolate them from Washington.
  • It is also important to note that an escalated conflict with Hezbollah could trigger a larger direct involvement from Iran. As Tehran’s favored proxy, Hezbollah is too valuable to them to give up without a fight. Whether that means funneling increased resources to Lebanon or engaging directly is still unclear. A high degree of Iranian involvement could prompt the US to consider more aggressive support for Israel or even some level of direct participation in the larger regional war. It is also worth noting that US decision making on this point could could vary significantly between prospective Harris vs. Trump presidencies(many see Trump as more eager to engage directly against Iran, especially in support of Israel). but opening the northern front potentially risks regional war. 
  • Additionally, if Israel were to escalate to a larger war with Hezbollah, it could further jeopardize the fates of the remaining hostages in Gaza, 2/3 of whom are thought to be alive. Following recent weeks’ events, pressure on Netanyahu’s government to agree to a hostage release deal is at an all-time high, drawing hundreds of thousands of protestors into the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities around Israel. Still, however, pessimism persists around the ceasefire talks, with no reported progress in the past week.
  • A missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck central Israel early on Sunday. The projectile, described by the Houthis as a “new hypersonic ballistic missile,” triggered air raid sirens across central Israel, including at Ben Gurion International Airport, prompting residents to seek shelter. Fortunately, the missile landed in an unpopulated area and caused no injuries or major damage, although some minor injuries occurred as people rushed to safety.Israeli military officials initially reported that the missile had penetrated their defenses but later clarified that it was intercepted mid-flight, resulting in fragmentation without complete destruction. The missile is not actually believed to be hypersonic.

International Affairs

  • Dominique Pelicot pleaded guilty to rape, among other charges, in one of the most shocking domestic violence cases in recent history. The trial, held in Paris, covered the case of a woman, Gisele Pelicot, 72, who was repeatedly drugged by her husband and assaulted by 50-70 other men over the course of several years. Ms. Pelicot insisted the trial be conducted publicly to expose her husband and the other perpetrators. Women’s rights organizations are hoping the case prompts a cultural shift to resolutely condemn sexual violence. Thousands of supporters have rallied across France to support Ms. Pelicot. 
  • Tunisia’s presidential campaign season began on Saturday, following a peaceful protest in the capital where hundreds of Tunisians rallied against President Kais Saied’s de-facto security state and a slow economy. The protests were organized by the newly-formed Tunisian Network for the Defense of Rights and Freedoms. The protests came shortly after the largest opposition party, Ennahda, reported a wave of mass arrests targeting its senior members. This is seen as part of a broader crackdown on political opponents, journalists, activists, and civil society leaders.
  • Two dozen Jamaican soldiers and police officers have arrived in Haiti to assist in the fight against powerful gangs as part of a UN-backed mission led by Kenya. The deployment follows the UN Security Council’s approval of the mission in October 2023, which began with the arrival of Kenyan police in late June. The Jamaican team, consisting of 20 soldiers and four police officers, will focus on command, planning, and logistics, working alongside Haitian military and police forces to address gang control in Port-au-Prince, where gangs dominate 80% of the area. Jamaica had originally pledged 170 soldiers and 30 police officers for the mission, but Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness explained that a full deployment at once was not feasible. The US has raised concerns about the mission’s limited resources and is considering a UN peacekeeping operation to boost support.
  • Note that relations between the US and Venezuela are already strained. Following the accusations of electoral fraud against Maduro, the US sanctioned 16 officials linked to Maduro.  The alleged arrest of a Navy SEAL could draw criticism of Biden and Harris from their opponents on the right who believe they haven’t done enough to free US prisoners and hostages held by hostile actors around the world, most notably in Israel.

US

  • A gunman attempted to assassinate former President Trump on Sunday in Florida. The suspect, Ryan Routh, has a criminal record (possession of an automatic weapon, a hit-and-run, a concealed weapons violation, and more) and is now in FBI custody. Routh was found with a rifle poking through the bushes but was discovered prior to firing his weapon. As of now, investigators look at this as an assassination attempt against Trump during a round of golf. Routh appears to be a former Trump supporter who switched parties after the January 6th Capitol riot.

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