Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – September 24, 2024

Interfor’s Weekly Digest | Global Security and Policy Insights – September 24, 2024 

Global Security Matters

Israel  – Gaza – Iran – Hezbollah

• Over the past several days, Israel has launched intense waves of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah-controlled positions and ammunition depots across Lebanon. In response, Hezbollah has fired rockets at northern Israel, including Haifa, marking the first time the city has been targeted since the Second Lebanon War (2006). According to Lebanon’s health ministry, Israeli airstrikes yesterday killed approximately 500 people, and injured 1,600 making it the deadliest day since the Second Lebanon War. As of now, the precise number of civilians killed remains unclear, but criticism of the scale and distribution of Israel’s strikes will almost certainly intensify as the conflict continues.
  
  • While the IDF has not invaded Lebanon, this week’s airstrikes mark a significant escalation against Hezbollah. There has been much discussion of whether these strikes and last week’s pager and walkie talkie attacks are meant to precede a larger war that would include a ground incursion. 
  • As of now, it appears Israel is using intense airstrikes to significantly weaken Hezbollah and perhaps force a Hezbollah retreat, rather than using those strikes to prepare the battlefield for a ground invasion. 
  • Still, given the intensity and death toll of these strikes, we can absolutely say that the conflict has entered a new phase and that, even without a ground component, that new phase almost certainly feels like full-scale war to Hezbollah and Lebanese civilians living in Hezbollah strongholds.
• Today, an Israeli airstrike in south Beirut targeted and reportedly killed Ibrahim Qubaisi, a senior Hezbollah official.Israel claims Qubaisi oversaw Hezbollah’s missile and rocket array that has been targeting Israeli civilians. This strike is the latest in series of Israeli operations targeting senior Hezbollah commanders overseeing various parts of the group’s ongoing and planned attacks on Israel. 

• On Friday, an Israeli airstrike hit a building in south Beirut and killed Ibrahim Akil, a high-ranking Hezbollah official in its Radwan forces. Akil was the commander of the elite Radwan Force, tasked with planning and executing ground incursions into Israel. The strike killed 31, 14 Hezbollah members, many of them senior members of Radwan, with 117 civilians also among the dead and injured. In response, Hezbollah launched a barrage of 140 projectiles toward Haifa and the surrounding areas, which struck multiple locations across northern Israel. 

• Israeli forces raided Al Jazeera’s bureau in Ramallah early on September 22, 2024, ordering its closure for 45 days, with the operation taking place during a live broadcast. Soldiers expelled the staff, giving them only ten minutes to collect personal belongings before seizing equipment, including cameras and microphones. The Israeli military justified the closure by accusing Al Jazeera of inciting violence and supporting terrorism, allegations the network has strongly denied. 

International Affairs

• The 2024 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has commenced at the UN Headquarters in New York City. In his opening address, Secretary-General António Guterres stressed the urgent need to prevent Lebanon from descending into a situation similar to Gaza. He condemned Hamas’s acts of terror but also criticized the collective punishment of Palestinians. Guterres underscored the unprecedented destruction in Gaza, noting the heavy loss of UN personnel, and called for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian aid. He warned that the world is on the verge of a crisis with potential global consequences, urging international collaboration to combat impunity and inequality. UNGA President Philémon Yang echoed these concerns, advocating for a two-state solution as the key to lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Meanwhile, Israel’s Ambassador criticized what was perceived as bias in the UN’s handling of the conflict.
  

• North Korea’s periodic launching of “trash balloons,” including one such launch yesterday, has drawn condemnation from South Korean officials. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff issued a warning, signaling the possibility of a military response to the provocations, which have raised public anxiety and caused significant disruptions. Spokesperson Lee Sung-joon described the launches as “petty provocations” meant to incite conflict. While no immediate military action is planned, Lee emphasized that any casualties caused by the balloons could provoke a strong retaliatory response. Since May, North Korea has released around 5,500 of these balloons, with a recent spike in activity leading to temporary flight suspensions at Incheon International Airport and reports of fires caused by their contents. The South Korean military confirmed that the balloons mostly contained household waste, with no hazardous materials detected so far.

• A coal mine explosion on Sunday September 22, 2024 in the Iranian city of Tubas has claimed the lives of 38 workers, with 14 miners still missing. The explosion, triggered by a sudden methane gas leak, occurred as the miners were starting their shift. Rescue operations are underway, and authorities have initiated an investigation into the cause of the incident. Iran’s mining industry has a history of similar tragedies, often linked to poor safety standards and insufficient emergency services in mining regions.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is visiting the United States to present his “plan for victory” aimed at concluding the ongoing war with Russia. During this trip, he will meet with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald Trump, seeking to secure additional military support and enhance diplomatic efforts to pressure Russia into negotiations. Zelensky emphasizes that this fall is crucial for Ukraine’s military and diplomatic strategies, highlighting the need for increased weapons donations and accountability for Russian actions.

• Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake was sworn in as Sri Lanka’s president on Monday. Dissanayake’selection is seen as a significant moment where voters rejected the previous administration, which faced criticism for leading the country into a severe economic crisis (then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to resign and flee the country). Dissanayake’s coalition is primarily composed of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), a party with a history of armed insurrections in the 1970s and 1980s that transitioned to democratic politics in the 1990s. 

Cyber News

• Chinese hackers, believed to be part of the APT group Earth Baxia, have targeted government agencies, telecommunications firms, and the energy sector in several Asia-Pacific nations by exploiting a critical vulnerability in OSGeo GeoServer GeoTools. The attackers used spear-phishing emails and leveraged CVE-2024-36401 to deploy Cobalt Strike and a custom backdoor known as EAGLEDOOR, which utilizes multiple protocols, including Telegram, for communication and data exfiltration. The group employed advanced tactics, such as GeoServer exploitation and tailored malware, to infiltrate and extract information from victims in the Philippines, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Thailand.

Resources

• US Department of State Travel Advisories
• CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters.
• Our latest blog posts look at what it takes to secure the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, and the most recent iteration of sextortion scams.