| International Affairs → Germany’s Friedrich Merz did not receive enough votes to approve his election as Prime Minister on Tuesday. The vote was unprecedented in German parliamentary history as Merz was expected to smoothly be installed as chancellor. However, several lawmakers have defected from their parties to block Merz’s victory. Merz must now whip additional votes in preparation for a second parliamentary vote to take place later this week. → India’s government ordered much of the country to begin civil defense drills in preparation for potential military clashes with Pakistan. Over the past several days, since a group of civilians were killed in Kashmir last week, both countries have swapped threats of escalating the conflict. These drills have already begun in and around Kashmir. In addition, some reports suggest that India is working to disrupt the flow of water to Pakistan. → Mark Carney’s Liberal Party formed a coalition with smaller parties, enabling it to secure enough votes to form a government in Canada. Carney will remain Prime Minister, though he must preserve his coalition partners in order to pass legislation. Their main opposition, the Conservative Party, won 144 seats, while the Liberal Party earned 169, out of a total of 343 seats. → India and the United Kingdom agreed to a landmark trade deal after three years of negotiations. The deal will increase bilateral trade by approximately $34 billion USD in order to strengthen the strategic partnership and incentivize investment and job creation. Both countries are wary of the effects of US tariffs, which may have pushed this deal over the finish line. → China’s Commerce Ministry indicated on Friday that US tariffs stood in the way of a trade deal. Chinese imports into the US currently face a 145% tariff, while US exports to China face a 125% tariff. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly been in talks with Chinese officials to reach a “short-term accommodation,” though Chinese officials deny these claims. |
| Middle East → Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a missile at Israel on Sunday that struck near Israel’s main airport. All flights briefly halted and many international airlines have suspended flights to Israel. In response, the IDF struck Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday evening. The strikes primarily focused on the Hodeidah port, which the IDF claims is used by the Houthis for the transfer of weapons and other “terror purposes.” In addition, this morning (Tuesday), the IDF struck the airport in Yemen’s capital, San’aa. Subsequently, as of Tuesday afternoon, there are reports that truce has been reached between the Houthis and the US and Israel. Houthis have allegedly agreed to suspend airstrikes on ships in the Red Sea in exchange for a pause in airstrikes. → On Monday, the Israeli government approved plans to escalate the IDF’s offensive in Gaza, including the reoccupation of the strip. The military’s plan would also include the “voluntary” evacuation of Palestinians southward and complete control over humanitarian aid supplies. The Security Cabinet voted unanimously to expand the war effort following the Houthi strike on Ben Gurion airport earlier on Monday. However, the military escalation will begin after President Trump’s visit to the Middle East, set to end by May 15, unless a deal to release the remaining hostages is reached. American private security contractors would continue to work alongside the IDF under this plan. → The fourth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran will likely take place this weekend in Oman. Last week, talks scheduled to take place in Rome were postponed for “logistical reasons.” Signals emerging from the Trump administration indicate a partial lack of consensus on Iran policy. Just among Trump’s closest advisors there are those who favor a diplomatic deal that allows Iran to have a civilian nuclear program – similar to the JCPOA – and those who believe no Iranian nuclear capability would be acceptable. Trump himself has offered contradictory statements on this point in recent interviews, saying both that the only red line is a nuclear weapon AND that Iran’s nuclear program must be fully dismantled. In all likelihood, a JCPOA 2.0 will be on the table in the coming months. What remains to be seen is how opponents to the deal in the Trump administration (and in Israel) will react. Will they push Trump to fully reject a deal his team helped to negotiate and opt for military action, or will they acquiesce to supporting the deal, perhaps in exchange for advancing another priority that hurts the Iranian regime? Cyber → According to a Forbes investigation, 19 billion passwords have been compromised and are available to hackers online. The breaches reportedly took place over the last 12 months. The report recommends that users immediately act to safeguard their data and update their passwords to be more complex. They also recommend avoiding repeat passwords. One implicated hacker group is Panda Shop, which transmits messages through iMessage and RCS platforms and purchases compromised G-Mail accounts and Apple accounts. Hackers can then have customized smishing kits (deceit through text message to gain personal information) to target as many individuals as possible. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. Our latest blog reviews the escalating security situation in India and Pakistan. |
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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – May 6, 2025
