The Escalating India-Pakistan Conflict

Will India and Pakistan Go to War Against Each Other?

In late April, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, a well-known tourist destination in India’s  Kashmir region, left at least 26 people dead, marking the deadliest assault on civilians in recent years. Indian authorities believe two of the four attackers were Pakistani nationals. While Pakistan’s government denies any involvement, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged retaliation. In response, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif stated that he anticipates a military offensive from India. 

In the wake of the attack, India’s non-military response  included the suspension of the  Indus Waters Treaty, which allocates the flow of the  Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan. The affected  regions in Pakistan rely heavily on this water for both irrigation and hydroelectric power. 

Asif condemned  the suspension of the treaty as an “act of war,” and has appealed  to international allies for support. The global community has largely urged both nations to exercise restraint, warning of the potentially catastrophic consequences of a full-scale conflict between two nuclear-armed powers.

The Kashmir Conflict

India and Pakistan share  a long  and turbulent history rooted in 1947 Partition of British India, which led to the creation of two nations  – India, with a Hindu majority, and Pakistan, with a Muslim majority. Since then, the two countries have fought three official wars, and even periods of calm  have been marked by  terror attacks and insurgent activity .  

Both India and Pakistan claim the Kashmir region, which has a majority Muslim population. Currently, the territorial division is as follows: India administers the Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh;  Pakistan controls roughly 30% of the region in the west, including parts of southern Kashmir; and China holds  a small portion in the North. 

Insurgency and Terror Attacks

In 1989, an armed  insurgency erupted in Kashmir, led by Muslim groups – some advocating for union with Pakistan, others calling for full independence. Pakistan provided active support  to many of these insurgents, which India launched sustained efforts to suppress the movement, fueling deepening resentment  and drawing accusations of human rights abuses. Pakistan officially shifted in stance, and the current government maintains that  it no longer supports insurgency or terrorism in the region. 

Nevertheless, Kashmir continues to experience frequent  terrorist attacks, with  India consistently attributing responsibility to Pakistan. 

The 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks, a devastating three-day siege that claimed the lives of over 170 people, remain among the deadliest assaults on Indian civilians. The attackers –   ten gunmen with confirmed ties to Pakistan – prompted India to demand a thorough investigation from Islamabad. Pakistan initially refused to cooperate, fueling tensions. In response, India rallied international support to pressure Pakistan into addressing and curbing terrorist activities within its territory . 

Will Modi Attack Pakistan?

Narendra Modi was first elected as India’s Prime Minister in 2014 and has since secured two reelections. A key element of his platform has been a firm stance  on Pakistan, frequently accusing the country of being an“exporter of terror” and pledging to respond decisively to cross-border threats,

Modi’s tenure has also included several controversial actions, most notably   the 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special autonomy and its reorganization into union territories. This move was accompanied by a sweeping security lockdown and a two year suspension of internet services in the region. While critics accuse him of undermining democratic  norms in India, his hardline approach towards Pakistan continues to enjoy strong domestic support. 

In 2019, a Pakistan-based militant group killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers, promoting  Modi to respond with airstrikes and other punitive measures. While international governments are calling for  restraint, political analysts worry that Modi’s overall approach to Pakistan, coupled with his reaction to the earlier  incident, could provide a glimpse into  how he might handle the latest terrorist attack. Pakistan has warned of  retaliation should India ilaunch an incursion, raising concerns of a potential fourth war between the two nations..

With the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and  between Hamas and Israel, global leaders are keen to avoid another major war. They are applying intense  diplomatic pressure on both India and Pakistan to avoid the use of military action. However, internal pressures that may not be fully understood by the international community, along with deep-seated  hostility between two nations, make it uncertain  whether war can be averted.