| International Affairs → On Monday, China confirmed an exit ban against a senior Wells Fargo executive who they allege is part of a criminal investigation involving the employee’s ties to the US government. The employee, a US Army veteran, is accused of failing to disclose that he worked for the US government on his visa application. Wells Fargo has since suspended employee travel to China. Interfor analysis: Interfor assesses that the situation will further increase US-China tensions already stoked by the two countries’ ongoing trade confrontation. At this time, Interfor advises its network to exercise extreme caution if travel to China is necessary. See our extended blog post on the topic here. → Following Sunday’s parliamentary election, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party is now a minority in the upper and lower houses. The electoral defeat comes amid increasing concerns about the efficacy of Ishiba’s government, as US tariffs and rising prices threaten to destabilize the Japanese economy. Ishiba has reiterated that he is committed to addressing these problems, though his political rivals suggest that he may be asked to step down prior to ending his term. Meanwhile, Japan is actively negotiating with President Trump to avoid the expected 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea taking effect on August 1. → On Friday, the US completed a prisoner swap with Venezuela. Ten jailed US citizens and permanent residents were released in exchange for over 250 Venezuelans who had been deported and imprisoned in El Salvador’s notorious Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) since March. → Following last week’s talks between the EU Trade Commissioner and Washington counterparts, President Trump has threatened to impose a 30% “reciprocal” tariff against the EU and Mexico beginning August 1. This deadline was reiterated by the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday. Taking inspiration from the UK-US trade deal, the EU is trying to negotiate a lower tariff rate, although Trump is reportedly demanding a 15-20% tariff minimum. In the event that negotiations fail, the EU is preparing to react with counter-measures. The discussion about whether to use the “anti-coercion” instrument (ACI), a defense and deterrence tool that would allow the EU to wage economic penalties against the US, has most recently received support from France. Middle East → US intelligence now suggests that the US strikes on three critical Iranian nuclear sites last month may have only caused critical damage to one of those facilities, Fordo. The other two sites targeted may still have operational capacity. Further, the Israeli government reportedly believes that some proportion of Iran’s enriched uranium is still intact somewhere deep inside the Isfahan facility. Based on available intelligence, the US and Israeli strikes appear to have set back the Iranian nuclear program by at least several months, though it has not been destroyed, as initially claimed. Interfor Analysis: It would take only a short period of time, and relatively few operational centrifuges, for Iran to progress any remaining highly enriched uranium (HEU) to weapons grade. And without IAEA inspectors in Iran, the global community is flying blind on Iran’s nuclear progress. Without either significant near-term diplomatic progress or further military strikes, Iran’s nuclear program might become more dangerous than it was before Israel’s strikes. → Late last week, the IDF carried out airstrikes against Syrian tanks and government buildings, claiming that they took action to protect the Syrian Druze community in Sweida. Druze communities clashed with Bedouin militias (supporting interim President al-Sharaa) and the Syrian army. Each side blames the other, as might be expected. Videos circulated online of Druze civilians being kidnapped, killed, and humiliated, while other content suggested Druze forces were executing Bedouins/Sunni Muslim Syrians. Some of these videos, however, were manufactured. Israel’s intervention in Syria’s internal conflict was criticized by the US Envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, who said it undermined Syria’s prospects for stability. On Saturday, Israel and Syria agreed to a ceasefire limited to the conflict in Sweida. → On Monday, the IDF moved tanks into southern and eastern Deir al-Balah, a city in central Gaza, for the first time in the war. Currently, the area is overflowing with displaced civilians. Already, tank shelling has reportedly killed several Palestinians. The IDF has not officially commented on casualties. Additionally, the World Health Organization claims that its facilities were attacked. In Israel, hostage families are raising alarms that operations in Deir al-Balah may put the remaining 49 hostages at serious risk. The IDF has avoided Deir al-Balah previously due to intelligence that hostages were in the area. Cyber → On Sunday, CISA added CVE-2025-53770 “ToolShell” to its catalog of known exploited vulnerabilities after several SharePoint Servers were allegedly hacked on Friday. The vulnerability has been allowing attackers to enter unauthenticated systems and access files, internal configurations, and code execution in the United States, Germany, France, and Australia. Over the past few days, US state and federal agencies, businesses, universities, and energy companies have been targeted. On Saturday, Microsoft released customer guidance claiming it is working to resolve the issue and provide privacy protections for all impacted customers. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. See our most recent talk on the rise of ideological violence in the United States and how corporate security professionals are meeting the challenge, featuring former Director of the U.S. Secret Service, Mark Sullivan. Our latest analysis looks at the Israel-Iran conflict; beyond the headlines. See also our interview with Tom Hardin, one of the most active informants in securities fraud history. |
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