| Israel – Iran → Beginning early Friday morning, Israel launched a broad attack on Iran, targeting top military and scientific leaders, missile launch sites, and the nuclear program. Iran has since launched multiple barrages of ballistic missiles at Israel. Hundreds in Iran and dozens in Israel have been injured or killed by the strikes. Israel reportedly assassinated at least 10 nuclear scientists and damaged multiple nuclear sites, hundreds of ballistic missile launchers, key radar systems, and half of Iran’s UAVs. Israel has also hit oil depots and other energy infrastructure in Iran. → Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear site, Fordo, remains intact deep inside a mountain outside Qom. Only the US possesses the weaponry (a “bunker buster” bomb) to reach and destroy the reactor. While Israel could attempt to degrade the site with covert operations and disruptions to nearby transmission plants, US military assistance would be the surest way to ensure the program is dismantled. President Trump has reportedly claimed that the US will not actively join the war unless Americans are targeted, preferring to bring Iran back to the negotiating table; simultaneously, the US military has taken steps to prepare for this possibility, moving the Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group and 28 strategic refueling planes to the Middle East. For the moment, this is the decision on which the conflict will pivot. Either Trump will help Israel destroy Fordo, or he will count on Iran returning to the negotiating table. Recent reports suggest Trump may be leaning toward joining the attack, but much uncertainty remains. → Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent statements indicate that Israel may be considering adopting a regime change objective in Iran, although his defense minister has said that is not the case. As with prior clashes with Tehran, Netanyahu is appealing directly to Iranian civilians, asking them to revolt against the regime. Thus far, however, Netanyahu’s words have not been well-received by the Iranian people. If anything, the Israeli strikes seem to be stimulating a “rally-around-the-flag” effect. Even among Iranians opposed to the regime, Israel’s strikes have been met with fear and anger. At the same time, Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last Shah, has been trying to encourage rebellion against the regime amid the Israeli strikes. His messaging has largely failed, instead being criticized as support for Israeli strikes that have claimed the lives of Iranian civilians. Even if Israel were able to trigger the collapse of the Islamic Republic, there is no clear leading candidate to take power next. No opposition group remains that is organized and widely supported, and, in all likelihood, no such group could take and hold power without foreign support (and given Iran’s history, any foreign support would be viewed as highly controversial). In the event of regime collapse, a protracted state of instability may be the likeliest outcome, unless more rational regime insiders manage to facilitate the Supreme Leader’s exit and gain control. For the moment, nothing is clear on this point. |
| International Affairs → The Spanish government’s investigation into April’s mass power outage revealed that Spain’s grid operator, Red Eléctrica de España (REE), miscalculated its power capacity needs. The unexpectedly high amount of voltage used led to the blackout. The report, which will be released to the public today, found that several power plants violated their legal responsibilities by failing to regulate the voltage. The investigation found no evidence of a cyber attack. → Russia and North Korea’s partnership took another step forward this week, after Pyongyang agreed to send thousands of military construction workers and soldiers to Russia to aid in fighting and reconstruction. Already, North Korea has sent at least 11,000 troops to support the Russian military. US and South Korean intelligence indicate that North Korea has also transferred ballistic missiles, ammunition, and anti-tank projectiles to Russia, though both Moscow and Pyongyang deny these claims. Barring Ukraine’s concerns of growing Russian manpower, the exposure of North Korean troops to modern warfare and drone technology raises concerns for South Korea. → On Thursday, an Air India flight crashed soon after take off, killing all but one on board the aircraft. Investigators have recovered the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) from the plane, though findings have not yet been released to the public. Indian authorities, along with the FAA and Boeing are investigating the incident. → On Sunday, G7 leaders met in Canada. The agenda officially includes the global economy, natural disasters, and the Ukraine war, though the talks have been predictably overshadowed by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as President Trump’s looming tariff threats. The meetings were further stifled by President Trump’s early exit on Monday to focus on Israel/Iran. United States → On Thursday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth testified before a congressional hearing on his use of Signal chats to discuss classified operations. During the hearing, Secretary Hegseth offered little information as to whether classified information was leaked. Over the course of his questioning, however, he did suggest that the Pentagon had contingency plans to invade Greenland and/or Panama if necessary. An internal Pentagon watchdog report is expected in the coming months. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. Our latest analysis pieces look at the early stages of the Israel-Iran conflict and how to keep civilians safe during protests. |
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