Interfor General Alert: Iran-Israel Analysis + Weekend Protests in the US

Interfor General Alert

ISRAEL – IRAN

Since early this morning local time, Israel has hit a wide range of nuclear and military targets in Iran and assassinated a large number of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other Iranian leadership. We have long assessed that Israel saw little value in a limited strike on Iran; an attack on the nuclear program would need to aim to substantially weaken, if not collapse, both military capabilities and political-military power centers inside the Islamic Republic (primarily within the IRGC). Clearly, Israel has gone ahead with a more comprehensive attack plan, aimed at destroying enrichment sites, nuclear know-how, and a broad range of military capabilities and command centers that Iran would leverage to retaliate.

Here’s what to expect over the next several days and weeks:

• Up to two weeks of sporadic Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, possibly including either a US-provided, Israel-operated bunker buster munition to target deep underground enrichment facilities (or the direct deployment of such a munition by the US). 
• Additional assassinations of key military and political leadership. Israel appears to be following the intelligence-supported model it deployed against Hezbollah, waiting for senior IRGC leadership to gather in response to Israeli strikes and then attacking those gatherings (reportedly Israel eliminated a significant number of senior officers from the IRGC’s Air Force leadership in such a strike just hours ago).
  • Also confirmed dead is Ali Shamkhani, an ambitious former National Security Advisor with close ties to the Supreme Leader. Assassinations of out-of-office but still influential political figures could be an indication of some kind of regime change strategy taking shape, but it is too early to speculate on this account. 
• Continued on-the-ground sabotage operations and locally-deployed drone strikes, many of them targeting Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, either before or during a planned missile launch against Israeli or US targets in the region.

Potential Iranian attacks on Israeli, Jewish, or American soft targets around the world. Iran is substantially less capable of a significant military response now than it was just a year ago. Instead, it might seek to hit an Israeli embassy, Jewish center, Israeli-owned business, or other civilian targets in a third country. Iran has previously plotted such attacks in geographies outside the Middle East, where local security staff is less likely to expect them.

In terms of a wider conflagration, or “World War III,” as many are expressing concerns about; Interfor’s assessment is that aside from their now-weakened proxy forces, Iran does not have any allies or partners who will commit arms to its defense, despite any protestations that might be voiced. Whether it is Russia, China, or even Turkey, it is not worth it for other nations to wade into this conflagration on behalf of Iran.

 US Protests over the weekend of June 14th

Further to our alert a few days ago, an updated version follows:

Interfor is actively monitoring the potential for large-scale protests and related disruptions in New York City, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and other major cities across the US this weekend. While the scale and impact of these events remain uncertain, we are issuing this advisory in response to increased client interest and inquiries.

On Saturday, June 14, tens of thousands of people across the country are expected to participate in the nationwide day of “No Kings” protests. The demonstrations are scheduled to coincide with President Trump’s planned military parade in Washington, D.C., marking both his birthday and the 250th anniversary of the US Army. Over 2,000 nonviolent protests are anticipated to occur across the country. In conjunction with the protests in the US, “No Kings” and “No Tyrants” protests are planned in numerous countries, including Canada, England, Ireland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland, calling for people around the world to reject Donald Trump’s agenda.

Several protests are currently planned in New York, including actions at Columbia University, Bryant Park, Grace Plaza, MacDonald Park, Grand Army Plaza, and Cadman Plaza. More than 100 pro-democracy advocacy groups, including Rise and Resist, Climate Defenders, Third Act, 50501 Movement, and New York City Democratic Socialists of America, have signed on in support of No Kings.  In Washington, D.C., a nonviolent march has been announced from Logan Circle to the White House, organized by Refuse Fascism. 

According to organizers, the protests are a response to recent ICE crackdowns and are being framed as a “nationwide day of defiance.” Participants aim to reject what they view as authoritarianism and reclaim national symbols in the name of democracy. One organizer noted, “The flag doesn’t belong to President Trump. It belongs to us.”  Multiple politicians have expressed their support of the protest, including Maxwell Frost and Senator Chris Murphy.

At this time, there are no known credible threats associated with these demonstrations. However, clients should anticipate possible disruptions, including increased pedestrian traffic, road closures, and a heightened law enforcement presence. Recent call meetings supporting the No Kings protests have provided resources by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) to protesters on what to do if they face a police officer. Still, the organizers have emphasized the importance of peaceful protest, claiming that Trump and the right-wing media will try to frame the protests as violent to stoke fear in the US and demoralize people into submission. With the confluence of many activist groups participating in these protests, we do see the unfolding situation in the Middle East further adding to the tense atmosphere. 

We recommend avoiding large gatherings when possible, staying alert to your surroundings, and allowing additional travel time throughout the weekend. There are elements who do wish to spark a wider conflagration. If you see any sign of attempts to goad a violent response you should leave the area immediately. 

Interfor will continue to monitor developments closely and provide updates as warranted.