Global Security and Policy Insights– May 27, 2025
| Middle East → On Sunday, the IDF reportedly claimed that it plans to capture 75% of Gaza within the next two months. Israel already controls approximately 40% of Gaza and has sent surges of troops into the Strip over the past several weeks. The ground operations come alongside a US-backed push to establish humanitarian aid distribution zones in Gaza, manned by US contractors. The UN and several aid organizations have refused to participate in the new distribution plan, citing travel safety concerns and reluctance to sanction Israeli-controlled aid. Jake Wood, the executive director of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (leading the distribution program), resigned from his post due to a lack of autonomy. In addition to the humanitarian risk of retaking 75% of Gaza, it is unclear whether the IDF has sufficient — and consistent — manpower to accomplish it. After nearly two years of war, some reservists (which make up a sizable portion of the IDF) are refusing summons orders. Additionally, amid an ongoing debate about haredim (ultra-orthadox religious men) serving in the IDF, only a small fraction have reported in. This creates two problems for Netanyahu: (1) a tired and fed-up military and (2) forcing the haredim to serve in the IDF risks provoking their leadership to withdraw their support from Netanyahu’s coalition, which would likely collapse his government. If the religious community sidelines Netanyahu, it will force early elections, potentially enabling strong candidates from the secular left to secure more power. → Israel and Syria are reportedly engaging in direct talks aimed at calming tensions on their shared border. President Trump, after meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa earlier this month, claimed that Syria may be willing to broach peace talks with Israel. This comes after an intensification of Israeli strikes within Syria, which Israel claims it conducted in response to attacks on the Syrian Druze minority. → A US-German dual national was arrested on terrorism charges after allegedly planning to firebomb the US embassy in Tel Aviv. Joseph Neumeyer is accused of bringing a backpack of Molotov cocktails to the embassy building on May 19. Neumeyer will be tried in New York. |
| International Affairs → On Monday, a car ramming attack occurred during a victory parade for Liverpool football club’s Premier League in the UK. At least 47 people were injured in the attack. To date, local authorities have not classified the incident as terrorism. → The EU agreed to fast-track trade talks with the US in an effort to avoid strain from tariffs. President Trump agreed to extend the deadline to hit the EU with 50% tariffs to July 9. Should the talks fail, the EU has reportedly approved tariffs on $23.9 billion in US goods, targeting products such as soybeans, agricultural products, poultry, and motorcycles. An additional $95 billion in tariffs leveled at the automotive and manufacturing industries may also be implemented. Negotiations between EU and US representatives will continue as early as this week. → On Sunday evening, Russia launched yet another large drone and missile attack on Ukraine, prompting criticism from President Trump for going against the spirit of US-brokered peace efforts. Ukraine had previously agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, during which a prisoner exchange took place between Ukraine and Russia, though Putin refused to sign onto the temporary ceasefire. → Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Sunday for talks focusing on defense, energy, and transportation cooperation. Erdogan has previously expressed support for Pakistan in its clashes with India and both countries have spoken about combatting separatist movements within their borders. Turkey, a NATO-member and majority Muslim country, would be an attractive partner for Pakistan. Cyber → Dutch intelligence authorities stated on Tuesday that last year’s cyberattack on the Dutch police, NATO, and several European countries was carried out by a previously unknown Russian hacker group known as Laundry Bear. In September 2024, the group successfully gained access to confidential details of Dutch police officials. Laundry Bear also reportedly targets businesses whose technology is used to sanction Russia. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. Our latest blog reviews recent airline safety issues. |
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