| Middle East → Following the ceasefire agreement signed last Thursday, Hamas released the 20 remaining living Israeli hostages on Monday morning, local time. Hamas is also required to release the remains of 28 deceased Israeli and American hostages, though they released only 4 bodies during the agreed upon 72-hour window, leading Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz to accuse the group of violating the agreement. Early this morning, Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to halt opening the Rafah Crossing and slow down the influx of humanitarian aid until Hamas locates and releases hostages’ remains. In exchange for the release of living hostages, the IDF withdrew from major population centers in Gaza and released approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. As of now, the ceasefire is expected to hold, mainly because all parties recognize how invested President Trump is in that outcome. However, further phases of the ceasefire will inevitably present challenges, specifically around Hamas’s disarmament, the IDF’s complete withdrawal, and plans for the future governance of Gaza. Already, Hamas is attempting to reassert military dominance in Gaza. Reports are emerging that Hamas militants are warring with rival clans, including the Doghmosh and Abu Shabab clans, and executing their members publicly. Over the course of the war, some within Israel have considered them as potential sources of internal resistance against Hamas. With the future of Gaza’s governance unclear, Hamas is likely working to eliminate their closest competition. → President Trump spent much of Monday morning in Israel to commemorate the occasion before flying to Sharm al Sheikh, Egypt for a global summit on post-war Gaza. Dozens of countries from the Middle East and Europe attended the summit, where Trump, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi, and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed a document outlining Gaza’s future, though the details of the document have not been publicized. Notably, while they were invited, Iran’s delegation opted not to attend. Iran likely did not want to attend an event with Israeli officials present following their armed confrontation in June. Iran also wants to save the prospect of a well-publicized meeting with Trump for a moment where Iran has a higher footing – rather than being one of many participants – and can extract more legitimacy, e.g. as a grand gesture during nuclear negotiations. International Affairs → On Friday, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize. Machado is currently in hiding following President Nicolas Maduro’s seizure of power after a disputed election last year. In response, Machado thanked the people of Venezuela and President Trump for their steadfast commitment to her cause. She reportedly went so far as to accept the award in President Trump’s name, crediting his administration for pursuing an end to communism and narco-dictatorships in Latin America. → Later this month, President Trump will visit Malaysia to broker ceasefire talks between Thailand and Cambodia. The two nations have been entangled in border skirmishes since July, displacing hundreds of thousands and killing nearly 50. The ceasefire will likely require both countries to remove landmines and heavy artillery from border regions. The visit will also coincide with an ASEAN summit. → After several weeks of youth-led protests and a military rebellion this weekend, Madagascar President Andry Rajoelina fled the country. The protests began in late September, decrying the government’s poor management of water and electricity resources and general ineptitude. Colonel Michael Randrianirina of CAPSAT, the arm of the military now leading the country, reportedly stated that the Madagascan people will decide the next government. The coup follows similar events in recent weeks in Nepal and Sri Lanka. → Over the weekend, a tit-for-tat between the US and China escalated. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, while China imposed stricter restrictions on rare earths. However, on Sunday, President Trump appeared to reverse his hard stance, posting online that the US and China are pursuing mutually beneficial trade relations. President Trump’s contradictory tones are likely leaving room for further negotiations with China due to fears of economic hardship for American businesses and farmers. US → On Friday, the US and Qatar announced that a Qatari Air Force facility will be build at the Idaho Mountain Home Airbase. The announcement follows President Trump’s decision to sign an unprecedented security guarantee with Qatar. The base will reportedly be under US jurisdiction and constructed within an existing US airbase, which often hosts foreign pilots. The decision sparked backlash from some conservatives, with commentator Laura Loomer accusing Trump of “harboring jihadis.” |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Our latest blog post examining data security on social media. |
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