| Middle East → Iran’s economy continues to deteriorate under President Trump’s sanctions and naval blockade. Iranian oil production has reportedly fallen by half, with no crude oil loaded onto tankers in September. However, Iran has shown little willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program or transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, President Trump’s top national security officials met at Camp David on Friday to discuss the Iran war and Saudi Arabia’s conflict with the Houthis, as negotiations remain stalled and President Trump considers resuming combat operations in Iran. Between increased oil flows via Hormuz and Saudi-backed forces successfully retaking some territory on the Red Sea, Iran is under pressure to find new ways to reclaim leverage in its confrontation with the U.S. We have seen an increase in Iranian attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, but those strikes have not meaningfully shifted the dynamic. In the meantime, the U.S. blockade on Iran continues. Together, we assess this is a status quo that the Islamic Republic will seek to upset in the near term. In terms of timeframe, Iran may seek to horizontally or vertically escalate the conflict ahead of the U.S. election on November 3. Iran’s leadership believes Trump is unlikely to meaningfully escalate against them before the election and sees an opportunity to hurt Trump at the polls by increasing pressure on energy markets. → On Monday, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive against the Houthis to retake territory along the Red Sea and regain control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis deny Saudi-backed forces’ claims that they lost any of this territory. Saudi Arabia provided air support. Riyadh reportedly requested American airstrikes, but Washington declined, instead providing intelligence support. The Houthis also launched an attack on two airports in Najran and Jizan, Saudi Arabia, on Monday. The attacks injured three people. The Saudi-backed coalition says it will go beyond just recapturing the Red Sea-adjacent territory it lost to the Houthis last month and take Sana’a, the Yemeni capital the Houthis have held since 2014, as well. Sana’a may end up being out of reach, but by announcing such an objective, the coalition is demonstrating commitment to the military campaign, which may turn out to be useful in shaping an eventual political settlement with the Houthis. → Last Wednesday, Hamam al-Hammami, the Omani co-pilot on FlyDubai Flight 1073, attempted to hijack a commercial aircraft flying from Dubai to Tel Aviv. Al-Hammami reportedly attacked the pilot, Smit Machchhar, with a cockpit crash axe and plunged the plane down 14,000 feet. Israeli passengers subdued the attacker, allowing crew members to level the plane and make an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia. The U.A.E. is leading the investigation into the incident, with some reported Israeli involvement. Israeli sources suggest that al-Hammami intended to crash into Ben Gurion airport. International Affairs → On Wednesday, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency M.I.5. issued an espionage warning over Chinese efforts to obtain sensitive U.K. research and technology, identifying the China General Technology Research Institute (C.G.T.R.I.) as an organization that funds research linked to China’s Ministry of State Security. More than 100 U.K.-based academics have reportedly worked on C.G.T.R.I.-funded projects, with some researchers potentially unaware of the organization ultimately financing their work. M.I.5. urged universities to strengthen due diligence on Chinese partnerships and funding sources, particularly for research involving technologies with potential military or national-security applications.. → On Friday, a researcher at Russia’s Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute, Daria Shipilova, died following a suspected laboratory exposure, prompting authorities to isolate staff and restrict access to several medical facilities. Local sources claimed that the researcher was exposed after accidentally breaking a test tube containing Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes plague, although Russian authorities have not confirmed that she contracted the disease. More than 60 institute employees were reportedly isolated, three hospitals were placed under quarantine, and approximately 200 people who had contact with Shipilova were placed under medical observation. → On Friday, Swedish parliament speaker Andreas Norlén gave Social Democratic leader Magdalena Andersson a second opportunity to form a government, days after she abandoned her initial attempt because of disagreements within the center-left bloc. Andersson’s Social Democrats, the Left Party, the Center Party, and the Greens together hold 176 of parliament’s 349 seats, compared with 173 for the outgoing right-wing bloc, but remain divided over the composition of a new government. Andersson has until October 12 to report back to the speaker with a suggested government formation, after which the parliament is expected to vote on said proposal. → On Sunday, Brazil’s first-round elections delivered major gains for former President Jair Bolsonaro’s political movement despite his absence from the ballot. His son, Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, received 47% of the presidential vote compared with 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The two will compete in a runoff on October 25. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party also expanded its representation in Congress, nearly doubling its Senate delegation from 15 to 28 seats and securing the largest single-party blocs in both chambers. Four other members of the Bolsonaro family won elected office, including former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro in the Senate, while Jair Renan and Renato Bolsonaro secured seats in the lower house.. → On Sunday, the F.B.I. arrested 34-year-old Wanying “Heather” Zhang at Los Angeles International Airport as she prepared to board a flight to China, on charges of acting as an unregistered agent of the Chinese government. U.S. prosecutors allege that Zhang met Chinese officials in 2025 and was subsequently instructed to conduct surveillance on relatives of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te living in the United States. Investigators said Zhang traveled to the family’s residence, photographed and filmed them, and provided Chinese officials with information including vehicle license plate numbers. Taiwan described the alleged operation as transnational repression, while Zhang faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted → On Monday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election for November 29, several months earlier than scheduled, after his minority government failed to secure parliamentary approval for two emergency housing measures. The decision follows growing public pressure over Spain’s housing crisis, including mass demonstrations over rising rents, home prices, and evictions. Sánchez said a stronger parliamentary majority was needed to advance further social reforms, while the opposition Popular Party welcomed the early election after repeatedly calling for voters to return to the polls. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
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