| Middle East → On Monday, President Trump announced that he would postpone a “scheduled” military offensive against Iran at the request of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf states have not confirmed their role in Trump’s decision, but mediators are reportedly pushing to regain diplomatic momentum on two key issues: Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump agreed to delay attacks for two to three days but instructed Secretary Hegseth to be prepared to launch attacks at a moment’s notice. Trump is still caught in a loop where neither the military nor diplomatic options currently on the table will meaningfully advance U.S. objectives. A comprehensive war-ending deal that also addresses Iran’s nuclear program, missile arsenal, and support for regional proxies remains far off, and even a limited air campaign hitting Iranian targets would risk provoking costly Iranian retaliation on the Gulf states’ energy infrastructure. A more limited deal wherein both sides agree to stop blocking global shipping around the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, leaving the nuclear issue and other concerns for later, would be seen as a U.S. concession. For now, Trump is indicating a strong preference for a comprehensive deal, but nuclear agreements take many months (or even years) to finalize. In the meantime, Trump claims the Gulf states only requested a two-to-three-day delay on U.S. strikes, suggesting a resumption of hostilities is still very much on the table. Rather than full-scale escalation, the U.S. would likely launch, alongside Israel, a time-limited phase of intensive strikes on targets aimed at increasing pressure on the Iranian regime to facilitate progress back at the negotiating table. As mentioned above, such strikes would risk costly Iranian attacks on the U.S.’s Gulf allies, in particular the U.A.E., and are far from guaranteed to successfully shape Iran’s calculus. Nevertheless, Trump may feel he needs a new round of fighting to break out of the current loop of slow diplomatic progress, followed by threats, followed by walking back threats to allow for diplomacy, rinse and repeat. → On Friday, the U.A.E. announced that the West-East pipeline, a crude oil exporting route, will begin operating by 2027. The government decided to accelerate the project’s construction to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Following its departure from O.P.E.C., Abu Dhabi will have greater flexibility to adjust oil output and export capacity. International Affairs → On Sunday, President Trump concluded a two-day summit in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders presented the talks as a stabilizing step in bilateral relations. Trump claimed China would expand purchases of Boeing aircraft and U.S. agricultural products, while both leaders agreed to establish a new mechanism to manage trade disputes without reopening tariff negotiations. Discussions centered heavily on technology, semiconductors and artificial intelligence, as well as unresolved tensions over Taiwan, export controls and global supply chains. Both governments have sought to project a more cooperative tone ahead of a planned follow-up summit in Washington later this year. President Xi Jinping is set to host Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing just days after concluding the summit with President Trump. → The Democratic Republic of the Congo is confronting a rapidly worsening Ebola outbreak involving the rare Bundibugyo strain. On Sunday, authorities recorded more than 300 suspected cases and approximately 90 deaths, with infections now identified in eastern Congo, Kinshasa, Goma and neighboring Uganda. Authorities are increasingly concerned over cross-border transmission. The World Health Organization (W.H.O.) classified the situation as a public health emergency of international concern, citing the growing risk of regional spread and the absence of an approved vaccine or targeted treatment for the strain. Authorities have not detected cases outside of Africa to date. → Over the weekend, Ukraine launched strikes at Moscow and nearby suburbs, killing three. These strikes follow several weeks of drone strikes within Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry responded on Tuesday by conducting drills of nuclear-capable forces, claiming that the drills are in preparation for a large-scale attack. Belarus also participated in the drills. → On Friday, Nigerian and U.S. forces reportedly killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, senior Islamic State leader overseeing the group’s activities in the Lake Chad Basin and the wider Sahel, in a joint counterterrorism operation. President Trump described the operation as a major blow to the group’s global network. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has worked to deepen security cooperation between Abuja and Washington, particularly in intelligence sharing and targeted operations against jihadist leadership. → On Wednesday, Filipino Senator Ronald “Bato” de la Rosa took refuge inside the Senate to avoid arrest by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. De la Rosa was previously implicated in President Duterte’s anti-drug campaign, for which he is also under investigation by the I.C.C. The incident triggered a lockdown of the Senate complex and culminated in reports of gunfire inside the building, although authorities reported no casualties and denied government involvement. The episode unfolded amid the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte, raising broader concerns over institutional stability and politicization of security forces. |
A Note From Interfor
→ Don Aviv and Jeremy Hurewitz on Pakistan’s involvement in the Iran war for The Hill.
→ Don Aviv and Sabrina Tan on the increasing threat of cyber attacks in Time Magazine.
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
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