| Middle East → Over the weekend, Israeli intelligence officials warned U.S. counterparts that an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (I.R.G.C.) missile exercise may indicate that Iran plans to attack Israel again. However, U.S. intelligence currently does not suggest an imminent Iranian attack. U.S. CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper was in Israel on Saturday to discuss regional security with the Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir. The U.S. seems to see this week’s Israeli warning of Iranian attack plans as an exaggerated assessment, aimed at advocating for preemptive strikes on Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu will likely advocate for further pressure on Iran during his planned meeting with President Trump next week. While there are indications that Iran is in the early stages of rebuilding its offensive and defensive capabilities following its June war with Israel, most assessments conclude the Islamic Republic is not well-positioned to re-engage in war with Israel. In the meantime, Iran is struggling with an ailing economy, a severe drought around Tehran, and an emerging debate around the Supreme Leader’s successor and the future direction of the Islamic Republic. Bottom line: now is far from ideal timing to attack Israel, though factions within the I.R.G.C. would certainly like to show the Islamic Republic’s teeth and reestablish some form of strategic deterrence. → The United States Air Force-led coalition initiated a series of airstrikes against Islamic State (I.S.) targets in Syria on Friday. The murder of three U.S. military personnel by suspected I.S. militants last week prompted the campaign. According to the Trump administration, Syrian President al-Sharaa was supportive of the strikes. U.S. Central Command confirmed that American and Jordanian forces hit over 70 targets, including I.S. infrastructure and weapons sites. → Clashes between the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (S.D.F.) and Syrian government forces over the past several days killed at least two civilians and cast further doubt on the Syrian government’s ability to integrate the S.D.F. into its coalition. The two sides agreed to deescalate on Monday evening. Turkey opposes Syria’s attempt to integrate the S.D.F., which it considers a terrorist organization, arguing that they will betray any signed agreement. Under an agreement signed in March, the S.D.F. and Syria were to integrate their forces by the end of 2025, though the parties disagree over whether the S.D.F. would remain as distinct units or be assimilated into the wider military. International Affairs → On Monday, a car bomb killed Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff. Russian authorities are investigating the possibility that Ukraine orchestrated the attack. They have accused Ukraine of similar assassinations throughout the current conflict. → Pentagon intelligence suggests that China loaded over 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into empty fields close to the Mongolian border. The report suggested that this and other military activities, including the expansion of China’s nuclear warhead arsenal, may be in preparation for an eventual invasion of Taiwan. President Trump has been trying to pursue denuclearization with China and Russia, though officials have announced no significant progress. → On Sunday, the U.S. Coast Guard pursued a Venezuelan oil tanker in the Caribbean Sea. The U.S. military attacked several Venezuelan vessels in November and December as part of President Trump’s campaign against alleged drug smuggling vessels. This week, President Trump added that the campaign will also secure stolen assets of American oil companies allegedly obtained during Venezuela’s nationalization of oil in the 1970s. → Over the past two weeks, authorities in several countries have reported suspected Islamic State activity. According to Australian authorities, the two gunmen who attacked a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach last week were inspired by the I.S. In Poland, authorities stopped a suspected I.S.-inspired attack against a Christmas market. German authorities arrested five men last week on suspicion of attacking a Christmas market in Lower Bavaria. French officials canceled Paris’s annual New Year’s Eve celebration due to a “very high terror threat,” which some officials attribute to al-Qaeda and I.S.-linked actors. → On December 24, defense officials from Thailand and Cambodia will meet to discuss resuming the ceasefire originally signed this past summer. Weeks of border skirmishes have left at least 80 civilians dead and over half a million displaced. Each nation’s leader accuses the other of leading the aggression and violating their neighbor’s sovereignty. U.S. → Over the last week, President Trump recalled over 20 career ambassadors who the administration argues do not adhere to his “America First” foreign policy strategy. John Dinkelman, President of the American Foreign Service Association, criticized Trump’s order as “highly unusual.” |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
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