| Middle East → Over the last week, the United States has continued to concentrate key military assets in the Middle East to prepare for a possible strike on Iran. U.S. government sources confirm that the USS Lincoln carrier strike group has now entered the Middle East. At the same time, President Trump stated on Monday that the situation is in “flux” and that a diplomatic off-ramp is still possible. Death toll estimates for Iran’s crackdown on protests in the beginning of January continue to rise, with some sources suggesting over 30,000 may have been killed. Interfor now assesses a 60% likelihood that Trump will green-light strikes on Iran in the coming weeks. Trump now says he is open to resolving the situation diplomatically, but a satisfactory deal is unlikely. U.S. demands have only increased in the Islamic Republic’s moment of weakness, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains likely to view extreme concessions – such as fully relinquishing Iran’s right to enrich uranium and eliminating its support for proxy groups – as unacceptable. Iran may offer a more limited deal, but if Trump accepted it, he would face criticism for going easy on the regime after it killed tens of thousands of its people. Trump also floated openness to talks with Iran shortly before he sent bombers to strike the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites last June. With that in mind, Iran’s leadership likely distrusts Trump’s statement about talks and is preparing for an imminent attack. All of this leaves us with two conventional scenarios and a third that is unique to Trump’s foreign policy approach: i. If Trump’s statement regarding talks was a headfake, then we should expect an attack on Iran’s missile sites, nuclear program, and regime targets as soon as this week. ii. If Trump is genuinely interested in a diplomatic off-ramp, he may allow a window for diplomacy and hold off on a military strike. iii. Lastly, Trump could launch a limited strike and then seek to negotiate. Trump sees war as politics by other means and believes that he can use military action to improve his negotiating position. It is more likely that the Islamic Republic, once attacked, would refuse to negotiate, but that could change if U.S. and Israeli military action meaningfully shifts the balance of power inside Iran’s regime. International Affairs → The Chinese Ministry of Defense announced an investigation into Zhang Youxia, the vice-chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The sidelining of Zhang, a longtime close ally of President Xi Jinping, follows the purging of several senior military officials in a recent anti-corruption campaign. In the past, many, including former U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, perceived Zhang to be untouchable. Reports suggest that Xi may have launched the investigation to push Zhang aside and further consolidate power; rumors are circulating that Zhang is being accused of leaking Chinese nuclear secrets to the U.S. China analysts are rushing to interpret the meaning of this latest move. For the moment, what is clear is that control is now even more concentrated in Xi’s hands. From here on, that could make his hold on power more stable — as more senior leaders are purged, we are left with fewer actors capable of executing a coup. For China’s relationship with the U.S. and its policy toward Taiwan, the implications are slightly less clear. We have landed in a situation where only Xi’s view on both issues matters. That paves the way for more swift decision-making, so if Xi wants to invade Taiwan, there will be little to no obstacle to him doing so. On the other hand, many China analysts believe Xi’s pragmatism supersedes his interest in Taiwan. If he ultimately decides that taking Taiwan by military force is not worth the risks, then China will not invade Taiwan. Moreover, further changes to the military’s leadership likely diminish readiness for a Taiwan invasion. → Last week at Davos, President Trump appeared to back down from his push to acquire Greenland and officially announced the Board of Peace for Gaza, while financial leaders argued that the world order was shifting. World Trade Organization Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked that while uncertainty remained high, it also presents an opportunity for leaders to strengthen ties to non-U.S. allies. Interfor Academy’s Marc Polymeropoulos, decorated CIA veteran and global security expert, writes on the World Economic Forum and its implications for U.S. foreign policy and international standing: “To those of us in the diplomatic, intelligence and military fields who were the tip of the spear and spent time living outside of the US, these are particularly dark times. We saw long lines at US consulates all around the world composed of people fleeing for a better future in America, and we were inspired by those that saw America as a country of good. Yet those times are in the rearview mirror. We no longer welcome immigrants. We don’t project our values. Instead, gunboat diplomacy, bullying our allies, astonishingly naked imperialism, standing for nothing ideologically other than pure economic interests, that is the US national security strategy in 2026. Davos was a turning point. The era of American exceptionalism is, sadly, on life support.” → On Monday, a Kremlin spokesperson praised recent talks with American and Ukrainian counterparts in Abu Dhabi, citing limited progress. Moscow and Kyiv are, in principle, committed to negotiating a ceasefire, though they both still claim sovereignty over Crimea and the Donbas. Mediators, including the U.S. and Germany, are reportedly advocating for a temporary ceasefire, after which the parties can negotiate a comprehensive deal. → India and the European Union agreed to a trade deal expected to double European exports to India and significantly reduce tariffs on imports to the E.U. They will formally sign the deal after legal review. European Union-Indian trade volume currently outweighs U.S.-India trade; strengthened ties with Europe may signal New Delhi’s efforts to reduce reliance on American trade. → This weekend, President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada signed a trade deal with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, on Sunday, clarified that Canada would not be signing a deal. The U.S., Canada, and Mexico will soon begin trilateral negotiations to renew their existing trade agreement. → On Tuesday, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that domestic intelligence agencies would begin devoting more resources to countering “left-wing extremism.” A January attack on the Berlin power grid that caused approximately 45,000 residents to lose power in freezing temperatures prompted the announcement. The Volcano Group, a left-wing activist organization, claimed responsibility for the attack. United States → On Saturday, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (I.C.E.) agents fatally shot a civilian, Alex Pretti, in Minneapolis, Minnesota, sparking national protests and a bipartisan push for de-escalation. Pretti is the second American civilian fatally shot by I.C.E. in Minneapolis this month. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz requested that I.C.E. presence be reduced in his state. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, will travel to Minneapolis this week to assess the situation. |
A Note From Interfor
→ Interfor’s team provides suggestions on social media risk management in our blog post here.
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
To find out more, please reach out to info@interforinternational.com
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