| Middle East The Israel-Hamas ceasefire is still in Phase 1. Over the past week, Israel has criticized Hamas for not returning the bodies of all deceased hostages, in violation of the deal. Prime Minister Netanyahu will convene the security cabinet this week to discuss the issue. This comes as the US, Israel, and regional partners are discussing the international oversight force meant to uphold the ceasefire and rebuild Gaza. Discussions are ongoing regarding the make-up of this force. Much remains to be determined regarding the proposed international force for Gaza. Israel is adamantly against Turkish participation in the force, amid reports President Erdogan wants to use his relationship with Trump to advance Turkey’s status in the region via the Gaza crisis. We might see the US use Turkey as a stalking horse to reduce Israeli objections to certain Arab states’ participation in the force, e.g. Qatar. Last week we saw a procession of senior Trump administration officials visit Israel, termed “Bibi-sitting,” implying that Trump was deliberately sending emissaries hoping their presence would deter Netanyahu from derailing the ceasefire. While that may be an exaggeration of the state of affairs, Trump maintaining focus on Gaza does seem to be critical to the ceasefire’s progress. A key risk remains that Ukraine or another crisis will draw US diplomatic attention elsewhere, allowing space for the ceasefire to stall and deteriorate. → Though the 2024 ceasefire remains in place, Israel struck several Hezbollah-linked targets in southern Lebanon this week. In one incident, an IDF reconnaissance drone was shot down by UNIFIL peacekeepers, who claim that the drone approached “in an aggressive manner.” The IDF then dropped a grenade near the UNIFIL mission. None were injured. US envoy Morgan Ortagus is scheduled to visit Lebanon on Tuesday to defuse tensions and promote Hezbollah’s disarmament. International Affairs → Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm, is projected to hit Jamaica by Tuesday afternoon. Melissa currently has 175 mph winds, placing it among the most dangerous Atlantic storms on record. Jamaicans are being urged to evacuate away from coastal towns. Hurricane Melissa is also expected to hit Cuba and the Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday, though by then it is expected to be a Category 3. → Late last week, the USS Gerald R Ford was deployed to Trinidad and Tobago as part of the US effort to combat alleged Venezuelan drug trafficking vessels. In response, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro suspended existing energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago, rejecting the Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s explanation that the US presence was connected to joint military exercises. This marks the latest escalation in tensions due to the Trump administration’s campaign against what it calls “narcoterrorists” in the Caribbean. The US military has conducted 10 strikes against these targets since September, killing at least 43. → Over the weekend, President Trump announced that he would cancel “all trade negotiations” with Canada after a Canadian ad was released, quoting anti-tariff remarks from President Ronald Reagan. The ad campaign, organized by Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford, has since been paused. However, Ford has stated that he intends to pay for the ad to be published on American networks. Ford is not part of Prime Minister Carney’s Liberal party. → Russia claims that it conducted a test of an “experimental weapon” on Sunday. The “Burevestnik” is described as a “nuclear-powered cruise missile with unlimited range.” NATO officials claim that the weapon is more political than useful, providing a Russian response to President Trump’s plans for a “Golden Dome” around the US. US → The NYC mayoral election is on November 4. Interfor is monitoring local activity for signs of protest or disruptions related to the election. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Our latest blog post examining data security on social media. |
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