| Middle East → On Saturday, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, announced several new demands for the resumption of regular traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. They include an end to the U.S. naval blockade, cessation of hostilities against Iran and its proxies, and full compensation for war damages. President Trump publicly rejected the latter request on social media on Sunday. Iran’s new demands come amid reported tensions between Iranian leaders. Amid all of this, reports suggest Iran and Oman may be approaching a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Any agreement is likely to be temporary and will not resolve the broader conflict. Still, it might reduce the likelihood of a near-term escalation of the conflict and allow more oil to flow through the Strait. Trump and Iran trading demands over reparations is just rhetoric for now, but it does further show how far the two countries are from a lasting deal that resolves the conflict’s underlying disagreements. → On Friday, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, committing each country to deeper security cooperation. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar invited other countries to join the agreement and underscored that the Mecca Agreement was not directed at any particular country. In response, Iranian officials have declared that the defense pact will not deter any future military actions in the Gulf. It remains unlikely that either Turkey or Pakistan would rush to Saudi Arabia’s defense if the Kingdom was again attacked by Iran. Nevertheless, a stronger Saudi entanglement with two of Iran’s neighbors and trading partners could make a decision to attack the Kingdom more complicated for the Islamic Republic. → After months of closed-door negotiations, the U.S., Israel, Syria, and the I.A.E.A. have reached an agreement to remove Assad-era nuclear material from Site 99, a clandestine nuclear facility. Site 99 reportedly contains “leftover” material from the Al Kibar nuclear reactor, which Israel bombed in 2007. It is unclear when the material will be removed, though the Trump administration reportedly sees it as a continuation of efforts to strengthen U.S.-Syria cooperation. → On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said in remarks to the Knesset that the I.D.F. would not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas fully disarms. Despite Netanyahu’s hardline statements, the I.D.F. has scaled back operations as of Monday. This may signal that Netanyahu is continuing to cooperate with Trump’s 15-point plan while protecting his domestic political position ahead of the October elections. → On Saturday, a vessel carrying nearly one million barrels of Russian oil was struck off the coast of Oman. No party has taken credit for the attack. Oman’s government is now attempting to contain the 150-square-mile oil leak. Environmental groups estimate that the spill has grown to approximately 230 square miles. International Affairs → U.S. intelligence suggests that the explosives-laden drone uncovered at Leipzig/Halle Airport last week may be linked to Russia. The German government has not commented on these allegations. At the time of the incident, German Interior Minister Dobrindt stated that although the device failed to detonate, the operation appeared to have been professionally planned. After security forces contained the device, a second drone struck an incoming cargo plane. Investigators suspect that the second device may have been a surveillance asset and are working to uncover the origin of these devices. → On Monday morning, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck western Colombia, killing at least 111 people. Dozens of buildings have collapsed and over 1,600 homes have been destroyed, according to early estimates. Local governments are holding search-and-rescue operations in areas including Pereira, Cali, and Chocó. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Washington is ready to support rescue efforts if needed. → Spanish authorities are monitoring a suspected social media campaign to organize another influx of Moroccan migrants into the Spanish territory of Ceuta. Both the Moroccan and Spanish governments have at least partially attributed the July migrant surge to social media misinformation. The messaging is primarily on Facebook, where two groups have over 70,000 total members, and are advocating for mass movement on August 15. Meta has agreed to monitor posts on this topic and remove content that violates its guidelines. → As part of the Turkish government’s ongoing efforts to make peace with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (P.K.K.), the Turkish parliament voted on Monday to pardon thousands of Kurdish militants and postpone non-terror-related investigations. Pardons will come into effect after the P.K.K. fulfills its commitment to disarm. The P.K.K. is supportive of the measure but has called on Erdoğan to release the movement’s founder, Abdullah Öcalan, who has been imprisoned since 1999, and has insisted that Kurdish rights be included in legal reforms. Erdoğan’s political rivals have accused him of pursuing peace with the Kurds to prolong his time in office. → On Saturday, Taiwan carried out its annual coastal military exercise to simulate defensive operations against a Chinese assault. The drills will last 10 days, overseen by President Lai Ching-te. Early drills included demonstrations of the Taiwanese Coast Guard’s Anping-class catamarans, which would assist naval attacks against enemy warships. On Monday, the government slowed the internet across much of the island to simulate a signal disruption and conducted an air landing assault on the Penghu Islands. |
A Note From Interfor
→ Don Aviv and Jeremy Hurewitz on the recent hostage crisis in California in The Hill.
→ Interfor’s team makes the case that N.A.T.O. faces a subtler threat than invasion.
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
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