| International Affairs → Last Tuesday, gunmen opened fire on tourists in Kashmir, the contested Indian-administered territory on the border with Pakistan, killing 26. Kashmir Resistance (a/k/a The Resistance Front) initially claimed responsibility, though they later retracted their statement. Since the attack, news reports indicate that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Mohi may be advocating for a military incursion against Pakistan, where The Resistance Front is based. Pakistan has reinforced their positions on the Kashmir border. India has yet to release much information about the attackers, but as of now they have yet to reveal evidence indicating a Pakistani connection. A military confrontation between India and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed states, would risk dangerous escalation. → On Monday, Spain and Portugal experienced nationwide blackouts, marking one of the biggest power outages ever in Europe. Authorities in both countries are being pressed for an explanation. It is possible that the outage was due, in part, to a reliance on wind and solar energy. → On Monday, Vladimir Putin called for a three-day ceasefire to take place from May 8 – 11, though Russia has still not responded to the US’ proposal for a longer ceasefire. The announcement comes as the Trump administration continues to put pressure on Moscow and Kyiv for a permanent end to the war. However, Volodymyr Zelenskyy is skeptical of the Russian proposal, accusing Putin of manipulating the situation for personal gain after failing to adhere to a temporary ceasefire called over Easter. → In Nigeria, there has been a resurgence of attacks by Boko Haram and its rival, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). At least 22 people were killed in a raid over the weekend, in addition to 26 casualties from a vehicular bomb. ISWAP is reportedly receiving additional funding and resources from the Islamic State, including aerial technology. |
| Middle East → On Monday, UN and Palestinian envoys accused Israel of failing to meet its humanitarian obligations in Gaza at the opening hearings of the International Court of Justice. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has called the hearings a “circus” being used as a political tool against Israel. The case continues as humanitarian aid to Gaza is still restricted. Israeli officials have claimed that aid will resume once the remaining hostages are released. However, there has been no significant progress on an additional ceasefire. → On Monday, the leader of Israel’s Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, announced he would resign after Prime Minister Netanyahu attempted to fire him in March. Bar is the second government leader who has resigned following a public dispute with Netanyahu over the handling of the war. Still, the Supreme Court case challenging Bar’s dismissal remains ongoing. → The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded on Saturday. Both sides have described the talks as productive and plan to meet again in Europe this weekend. President Trump has made optimistic comments about the talks with Iran, but there are still many obstacles to a deal. First and foremost, Trump’s team is unlikely to extract greater nuclear concessions from Iran than the Obama team did with the JCPOA (the prior agreement, which Trump withdrew the US from). In order to make the deal more appealing than its predecessor, the Trump team will likely push for some form of added non-nuclear concession related to Iran’s ballistic missile program or foreign policy, perhaps in exchange for further economic incentives (beyond sanctions removal). It will be very difficult to extract those concessions from the Iranian team, and Trump will still face an uphill battle with Iran hawks in the US and Israel if he wants to offer carrots in exchange for greater Iranian concessions. |
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