| Middle East → Late last week, Iran suspended inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog. The decision effectively obscures specifics of the status of its nuclear program after the US-Israeli attacks. Meanwhile, satellite imagery shows “ongoing activity at and near the ventilation shafts and holes caused by last week’s airstrikes on the Fordow fuel enrichment complex.” While a complete assessment is impossible without on-the-ground resources, the IAEA has suggested that US strikes only set the Iranian nuclear program back by a few months. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi has stated that Iran would be open to negotiations if the US agreed to not pursue further military action. Interfor Analysis: We expect Israel to use Prime Minister Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington as an opportunity to align with the Trump administration on future action toward Iran’s nuclear program. While President Trump has indicated a preference for diplomacy, he may not be patient enough to see through highly technical nuclear negotiations. Moreover, Israel is closely monitoring for any Iranian moves toward reviving its nuclear program and moving toward a weapons capability. In particular, if Israel sees even a hint of Iran recovering and enriching its stockpile of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) – which could be brought to weapons grade in a manner of weeks – they will likely lobby the Trump administration to permit or even join further airstrikes. See also Interfor’s detailed analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict here. → The US is holding preliminary discussions between Israel and Syria in an effort to reduce tensions and enhance security arrangements at the border. If Israel and Syria come to an agreement, it will be a major development in bilateral relations. Any comprehensive deal is likely a ways down the road. Israel is reportedly aiming for eventual normalization, though key issues (including territorial sovereignty of the Golan Heights) will remain a point of contention. → Despite President Trump’s optimism about an impending ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Israeli officials have denied that there has been any meaningful change in each side’s stance. Hamas sources reportedly are responding to US pressure to release a deal, neither side expects a deal to be imminent. |
| International Affairs → According to Russian state television, the Russian military has taken control of the Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine. If Russia maintains control over the Luhansk, they will have nearly 19% of Ukrainian territory. Luhansk is one of four regions Russia illegally annexed in 2022 despite not having full control. Official Ukrainian channels have not responded to Russian claims, though it is state policy to refuse to acknowledge any claim of Russian control of Ukrainian territory. → Turkish authorities detained over 150 people on Tuesday, including a former mayor and opposition party members. According to Turkish authorities, the mass arrest is part of a crackdown on corruption and fraud in Izmir, a large city in western Turkey. Among those detained was Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s main political rival, sparking concerns that the campaign is politically motivated. The government denies these allegations. → On Friday, President Trump stated he would halt trade talks with Canada over its plans to tax US technology companies. On Sunday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney retracted his plans to tax US tech firms and pledged to continue bilateral trade talks. The tax would have impacted large companies like Amazon, Google, and Meta heavily, leaving US companies with approximately $2 billion in tariffs per month. While Carney’s decision avoided a further rift with President Trump, it has prompted some in his government, including Finance Minister Champagne, to criticize his weakness in dealing with Trump. → A Danish national was arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran on Tuesday. German prosecutors claim that the man was collecting information on Jewish sites and individuals in Berlin. Iranian officials have rejected the allegations. The suspect will be extradited to Germany and brought before the German Federal Court of Justice. In response to the arrest, the German-Israeli Society called on the German government to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Interfor Analysis: We have seen an increase in Iranian intelligence activity like this in Israel and Europe. Iran might see increased anti-Israel sentiment in the US and Europe as opportunity for direct and indirect recruitment of intelligence assets. United States → On Sunday, two firefighters were killed and a third injured when a gunman opened fire on crews responding to a brush fire in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho. Local authorities believe the suspect, who was found dead near his own gun, intentionally started the fire to lure in first responders. State and federal authorities are still investigating the suspect, Wess Roley’s, possible motive for the ambush. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. See our most recent talk on the rise of ideological violence in the United States and how corporate security professionals are meeting the challenge, featuring former Director of the U.S. Secret Service, Mark Sullivan. Our latest analysis looks at the Israel-Iran conflict; beyond the headlines. |
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