| Middle East → Israel’s security cabinet will meet on Tuesday to discuss ongoing military operations and a potential ceasefire proposal. Last week, Hamas reportedly accepted a proposal for a partial ceasefire. Israel has not officially responded. Meanwhile, IDF operations have intensified in Gaza, with one airstrike reportedly hitting a hospital, killing at least 20. Prime Minister Netanyahu called the incident a “tragic mishap” and claimed the IDF was investigating. Domestically, protests for a hostage release deal have intensified; hundreds of thousands of Israelis were estimated to have protested last week, criticizing Netanyahu for taking military action instead of prioritizing the hostages. Netanyahu is facing greater opposition in and outside Israel to continuing the war vs. prioritizing a ceasefire. Beyond just the protest movement, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly suggested that Israel “need[s] to take” the current deal, rather than continuing the deal. However, Netanyahu’s position as Prime Minister remains significantly dependent on support from the far right, which has opposed past ceasefire proposals. This sets the stage for President Trump to be the “tiebreaker” in Netanyahu’s decision making. Trump could theoretically lean on Netanyahu and pressure him to agree to a ceasefire. Importantly, however, if Trump is persuaded that Hamas is the primary obstacle to a deal, he could instead back Israel’s continued military campaign. We have already seen this latter scenario play out in recent months. While global opposition to the Gaza war has certainly increased, neither Netanyahu nor Trump is especially concerned with what France, the UK, or Canada thinks of their Gaza policies. In other words, despite this rise in pressure, we could still see negotiations fail and IDF operations in Gaza expand. → On Tuesday, officials from Iran, the UK, Germany, and France or E3 – the three European parties to the Iran nuclear deal – are expected to meet in Geneva for nuclear negotiations. The E3 have reportedly threatened to reimpose sanctions on Iran if it does not demonstrate genuine efforts to resume IAEA cooperation and further negotiations by the end of August. Otherwise, they plan to trigger the “snapback” of sanctions on Iran. Russia is reportedly drafting a resolution that includes a 6-month extension to delay snapback. International Affairs → On Monday, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced that he would seek a confidence vote on September 8, 2025, focusing on his plan to minimize France’s debt. Bayrou, whose government is currently in the minority in French Parliament, has already been criticized for his plan by main opposition parties. If the vote fails, the government will collapse, meaning snap elections will have to take place. President Macron could also appoint a new PM to lead an interim government. → President Trump reportedly stated that he aims to reopen denuclearization talks with Russia and China, broadening earlier reports that the topic was included in recent negotiations with President Putin. President Biden also made attempts to bring China into nuclear talks but saw few tangible results. If negotiations begin, they will likely be structured around the planned February, 2026 expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which is the last remaining nuclear arms agreement between the US and Russia. → On Tuesday, Australia expelled Iran’s ambassador and three other diplomatic officials due to Iran’s alleged involvement in two antisemitic arson attacks in Australia in 2024. Prime Minister Albanese also reportedly claimed that the government would designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, following other western nations like the US and Canada. → On Monday, German federal prosecutors reportedly charged a former US Defense Department contractor with attempting to sell US military secrets to China. The suspect, who has not been named by the German government, is accused of contacting Chinese intelligence agencies following dissatisfaction with his position on a US military base in Germany. The arrest is one of several that German authorities have made in recent years, targeting several individuals thought to have illicit ties to China. → Turkish authorities have reportedly begun requiring ships to demonstrate that they are not linked to Israel or carrying military/hazardous materials. This is the latest step in a Israel and Turkey’s ongoing trade disputes, which has been at play since Turkey severed trade relations with Israel in 2024, claiming that it would not resume until a Gaze ceasefire was reached. See Interfor’s analysis of Turkey’s push for regional influence here. US → Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Representative Joe Wilson (R-SC) visited Syria on Monday, hoping to push fellow lawmakers to repeal US sanctions on the post-Assad regime. President Trump has already issued a temporary pause on sanctions, which can be extended, but the lawmakers argue that a full repeal would encourage long-term investment and boost Syrian stability. Syria’s interim President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has been positioning Syria as a key partner in regional stabilization in discussions with the US. He is expected to speak on stabilization, sanctions relief, and more during his upcoming address to the UNGA in September. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. See Interfor’s analysis of the shooting at 345 Park Avenue in Manhattan here. See our most recent talk on the rise of ideological violence in the United States and how corporate security professionals are meeting the challenge, featuring former Director of the U.S. Secret Service, Mark Sullivan. Our latest analysis looks at the Israel-Iran conflict; beyond the headlines. See also our second interview with Tom Hardin, one of the most active informants in securities fraud history. |
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