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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - March 11, 2025

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – March 11, 2025

GLOBAL SECURITY MATTERS 
Middle East  
→ US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is expected to travel to Doha on Tuesday to begin another round of negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The Trump administration is reportedly pushing for the release of the 59 remaining hostages in exchange for another month-long ceasefire and, possibly, a long-term agreement. Simultaneously, US mediators, in a reversal of policy, held direct talks with Hamas for the first time since October 7th, 2023, in an effort to secure the release of American citizen Edan Alexander and the remains of four other Americans. Adam Boehler, US hostage affairs envoy, claimed that Hamas offered a 5-10 year ceasefire with Israel, though what it is asking for in exchange remains unclear. 
Prime Minister Netanyahu and his advisers are reportedly frustrated with the Trump team for establishing a direct channel with Hamas. The formal ceasefire negotiations are complex and any sidebar between the US and Hamas risks further complicating efforts to come to broader ceasefire terms (note, for example, that Edan Alexander might be in the next cohort of hostages to be released if a ceasefire extension is agreed to). The fact that Hamas has floated a broader truce directly to the US hostage envoy is a particularly concerning development for the Israelis. 
→ Over the weekend, Israel cut electricity to the last facility in Gaza receiving Israeli power. The move is expected to severely impact Gaza’s desalination capabilities, intensifying Gaza’s water scarcity. A week prior, Israel suspended humanitarian aid to Gaza in a move supported by the Trump administration. 
→ Late last week, Syrian government forces reportedly led an operation against the Alawite minority group, who are historically associated with former President Bashar al Assad. Over 700 people were killed and eye witnesses claim the military carried out “field executions.” Syrian President Ahmad al Sharaa blamed the violence on Assad loyalists — who allegedly have been conducting raids on government personnel in past weeks — and vowed to investigate the killings. The massacre raised concerns for other minorities in Syria, including the Druze (who have recently gained support from Israeli forces) and the Kurds. However, President al Sharaa signed a ceasefire with Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi on Monday, committing to merging their forces and providing Kurds equal rights under Syrian law.  
The deal between al Sharaa and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces is a positive development from the US perspective. The US has been concerned in recent months that the new Syrian government would further align with Turkey and commit to weakening, if not eliminating armed Kurdish actors in the country.
 Notably, the increase in Alawite insurgent activity likely drove some urgency for this deal to come to fruition. Both the new Syrian government and SDF fiercely opposed Assad and, to the extent his loyalists still pose a threat, that concern will likely bring the two former rebel groups together.
International Affairs 
→ US and Ukrainian mediators met in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. President Zelenskyy reportedly proposed an initial ceasefire agreement in the air and sea, but not on land. The meeting comes after a public clash between President Trump and President Zelenskyy and the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s European allies also met on Tuesday to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine even after negotiations cease.    
→ On Tuesday, Filipino authorities arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte on behalf of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of crimes against humanity. Duterte served as President from 2016 to 2022, during which time he executed a “war on drugs” that led to the deaths of thousands of drug dealers and users, as well as civilians unrelated to and uninvolved in the drug trade. Duterte’s supporters have questioned the jurisdiction of the ICC, as the Philippines are no longer a member state, as of Duterte’s unilateral withdrawal from the organization in 2019. Duterte will be extradited to the Hague this week.
 → A Meta whistleblower, Sarah Wynn-Williams, has come forward, alleging that Meta considered sharing user data with China in order to curry favor from the Chinese Communist Party and gain access to the Chinese market. Wynn-Williams alleges that Meta was willing to allow China to oversee all social media content of in-country users. Meta has not responded to the allegations. 
→ Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, replaced Justin Trudeau as the leader of Canada’s Liberal Party on Sunday and is expected to become the new Prime Minister in the coming weeks. In his victory speech, Carney highlighted President Trump (and in particular, his economic policies) as a key adversary for Canada. Carney will have to call for general elections, in which he will face the likely Conservative Party candidate, Pierre Poilievre.  

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