What’s Next for Ukraine, and the World?

Trump Pushes Zelensky Toward Peace, But Ukraine Wants Security Guarantees

It’s been a little over three years since Russian troops invaded Ukraine and launched a regional war that has thrown the entire world off-kilter. The war has caused not only death and damage but a surge in global food, energy, and raw materials prices. US President Donald Trump has taken it upon himself to act as a mediator between the two sides, However  his administration is decidedly more sympathetic toward Russia than his predecessor’s, marking a shift in the entire geopolitical landscape.

Trump Goes Head-to-Head With Zelensky

Trump’s recent encounter with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underscores both his stated commitment to achieve peace and his unwillingness to support Ukraine with with unconditional U.S support.

Zelensky met with Trump in the Oval Office on February 28, with the goal of securing continued US aid to Ukraine and warning Trump against cozying up to Russia. Zelensky was also expected to sign a minerals deal with the US, but his objectives  were quickly derailed as Trump and US Vice President JD Vance derided him on his lack of gratitude for US assistance. 

Trump ultimately defended Putin, refrained from committing to security guarantees, and suspended discussions on the minerals deal – whether temporarily or permanently remains uncertain. While Trump and Zelensky seem to have the same goal — peace between Russia and Ukraine, their approaches are fundamentally different. Trump claims to want peace at all costs and is unbothered by the prospect of Russia annexing parts of Ukraine. He argues that  security guarantees are unrealistic and Ukraine must accept its weakened position. 

Zelensky, on the other hand, insists that security guarantees are crucial to prevent Russia from future aggressions, and refuses to concede any Ukrainian territory. 

Trump Halts US Military Aid to Ukraine

Following the explosive meeting, Zelensky wrote to Trump that he was “ready to come to the negotiating table,” but Trump denounced him as insincere and unwilling to do what it takes to achieve peace. 

The next day, Trump suspended US military and intelligence aid to Ukraine in an effort to push Zelensky toward signing a deal with Russia. US aid currently accounts for about 30% of Ukraine’s munitions, which means that a halt could have significant ramifications. 

The move has been met with criticism from the Democrats and from some European leaders, who feel that the halt now places more pressure on them. 

Earlier this week, European leaders met in London to discuss potential solutions for helping Ukraine. They agreed that a lasting resolution is needed rather than a short-term ceasefire, recognizing that any agreement between Ukraine and Russia will have significant implications for European security. Some leaders, however, doubt whether Europe has the strength and resources to support the peacekeeping force necessary to sustain a truce. 

“America First” Approach Risks Alienating Europe, Empowering China

Trump’s fickle behavior and friendly attitude toward Russia have rocked whatever seeming stability had settled over Europe. NBC reported that as European leaders begin to lose faith in Trump, they may look toward China for trade deals and economic growth– an outcome that could strengthen China while weakening U.S. influence.

Trump’s attitude toward Ukraine has also raised concerns among U.S. allies in Asia, particularly regarding Taiwan. Some fear that if China attempts to annex Taiwan, Trump may adopt a similarly hands-off stance, mirroring his reluctance to commit to Ukraine’s defense..

The current administration maintains that Trump’s goading US allies to shoulder their own financial and security burdens will free up US funds for the country’s own needs. 

“President Trump’s America First approach to diplomacy prioritizes what’s in the best interest of the United States,” said Brian Hughes, spokesperson for the White House National Security Council.

As the Russia-Ukraine War continues, Europe struggles, and China’s economic power grows, the entire world is bracing itself for the implications of Trump’s America First policy.