Global Security and Policy Insights- June 24, 2025
| Israel – Iran → Early Sunday morning, the US military conducted airstrikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in an operation dubbed Midnight Hammer. B-2 stealth bombers and submarine missile launchers were used in the attack. While President Trump has stated that the operation was highly successful, American and Israeli intelligence have not yet confirmed the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Interfor Analysis: The strategic success of the strike may not be clear for the next several weeks, as the US and Israel need either ground intelligence or IAEA access to the nuclear facilities to assess the damage. Iran may have been able to move its enriched uranium stockpiles prior to US strikes. Iran is also believed to have at least one undisclosed additional location where they could further enrich remaining uranium, and, even if not, Iran could theoretically build the small number of centrifuges necessary to get its 60% enriched uranium stockpile to weapons grade. That uncertainty, plus the remaining Iranian nuclear “know-how,” puts further pressure on the diplomatic route. In the meantime, Iran could theoretically rush to build a bomb with its remaining uranium and test it. That said, both Israel and the US will be watching closely – and ready to strike – for any indications of a weaponization sprint. → In response to the US strike, Iran launched 14 ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid US military base in Doha, Qatar on Monday. No casualties were reported and the US assessments state that all projectiles were intercepted. Iran reportedly gave advance warning to at least Qatar, if not also the US, of the upcoming attack. → Hours later, President Trump announced that a bilateral ceasefire had been reached, to take effect early Tuesday morning, local time. However, both Israel and Iran have already claimed that each other violated the ceasefire. Iran reportedly fired six missile barrages at Israel, hitting at least one civilian neighborhood that resulted in fatalities. Israel is claiming that at least some of the missiles were launched after the ceasefire went into effect, which Iran denies. IDF Minister of Defense Israel Katz ordered the IAF to conduct additional strikes in Iran, though only one radar system was hit. President Trump has publicly criticized both parties for failing to abide by the ceasefire. |
| International Affairs → Since joining NATO, Finland has taken several steps to enhance its military posture on the border with Russia. Finland’s pool of reservists has increased by at least 1/3, they have reportedly begun stockpiling landmines, and they have reinforced fencing demarcating the border. While both countries reportedly deny potential for military conflict, Russia too is reportedly beginning to refresh old machinery at the neighboring Leningrad base. The increased security measures are to be expected, as Finland now accounts for over half of NATO’s border with Russia. → On Tuesday, NATO’s annual summit begins against the backdrop of three regional crises — the war in Ukraine, escalation in the Middle East, and tensions in the Indo Pacific. NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte has reportedly been pushing members to increase defense spending by as much as 400%, warning that Europe needs to be able to militarily protect itself in the event the US does not come to its aid. The summit is expected to last two days. Interfor Analysis: It is unclear how much attention President Trump will pay to the summit amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Middle East. If Trump’s team, preoccupied with maintaining the shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran, do not enthusiastically engage with NATO allies on European security, it may further convince Europe of the US’ declining role in NATO. → On Monday, the British government announced that it would seek to ban pro-Palestine group, Palestine Action, as a “terrorist group” following their trespassing and vandalism of a British air base. Over the weekend, Palestine Action members damaged military planes with red paint, aligning with similar actions the group has taken against various businesses and institutions in the UK over the past two years. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper stated that a legal ban would be introduced to Parliament at the end of June. Palestine Action and its supporters condemned the decision, calling it an affront to freedom of speech and protest. → Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te launched a campaign targeting “Chinese infiltration” among its civil service. Thousands of workers are set to be vetted for loyalties to Beijing and, if deemed guilty, may lose their citizenship. Vetting will take place across local government offices, schools and universities, and other civil institutions. Screenings began last week. Lai’s government claims that the decision is in response to China’s “gray zone” campaign, which allegedly uses social media to convince Taiwanese to cease resistance against China. Some civil unions in Taiwan have spoken out against Lai’s campaign, saying it places an undue burden on civil society workers. United States → President Trump delayed the TikTok ban for the third time last week, allowing it to operate in the US for another 90 days. ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, remains unwilling to transfer control of American user data, which some US officials consider a threat to national security. Despite the extension, the Supreme Court’s decision still stands and TikTok may operate only if it is sold to a US company. → NYC mayoral elections are today, June 24th. Several demonstrations are planned in lower Manhattan, supporting various candidates. While it is unlikely that a concrete winner will be announced before late tonight/early tomorrow, our team anticipates that further demonstrations may evolve as the election goes on. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. See our most recent talk on the rise of ideological violence in the United States and how corporate security professionals are meeting the challenge, featuring former Director of the U.S. Secret Service, Mark Sullivan. Our latest analysis pieces look at the early stages of the Israel-Iran conflict and how to keep civilians safe during protests. |
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