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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest -March 4, 2025

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest -March 4, 2025

Interfor’s Weekly Digest Global Security and Policy Insights- March 4, 2025

GLOBAL SECURITY MATTERS

International Affairs 
 → On Monday, Donald Trump suspended military aid to Ukraine. The decision comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tense meeting with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office late last week. Trump will reportedly withhold aid until he sees a “good faith commitment” to peace from Ukraine. Several Europeans nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, have in turn pledged to increase military aid to Ukraine. Without aid, Ukraine may struggle to continue the fight against Russia beyond a few months. In advance of the State of the Union address on Tuesday evening, there are rumors that the signing of the rare minerals deal with Ukraine will be announced. 
→ UNICEF released a report claiming that armed forces in Sudan are weaponizing sexual violence against children and infants. The report documents over 200 cases of child rape since early 2024. Incidents have been reported throughout the country, which could indicate that both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have been involved in these incidents. 
→ As of Tuesday, imports from Canada and Mexico to the US will be taxed at 25%. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau claimed that over $100 billion in US goods would be hit with tariffs in the coming weeks. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that an official response will come on March 9th. Automobiles, oil and petroleum, auto parts, and computer accessories will be the most impacted by President Trump’s tariff policy.
 → The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) declared a ceasefire with Turkey after over 40 years of conflict. This follows imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan’s calls for disarmament just days ago. There is some skepticism around whether Ocalan has the support of all of the PKK when it comes to reconciling with Turkey. While some may place this in a broader regional context that could see the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reconcile with the Turkey-aligned new Syrian government, this ceasefire might not be the breakthrough it has been presented as. 
Middle East 
→ Late last week, Hamas rejected Israel’s proposal to extend Phase 1 of the ceasefire deal because it did not commit to an end to the war. In response, Israel, with US support, has halted all humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas agrees to its proposal. The proposed extension would last an additional 42 days, until the end of Ramadan and Passover. Israel believes that approximately 20-25 of 59 remaining hostages are still alive.   
→ Several Arab leaders are expected to meet today to discuss Egypt’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza after the war, which would exclude Hamas from all governance. The proposal includes the formation of an interim independent, technocratic Palestinian committee to govern Gaza under the watch of the Palestinian Authority. Under the plan, Egyptian and Jordanian forces would train Palestinian police and ensure Palestinians remain in Gaza. The plan was formed in response to President Trump’s proposal of US ownership of the Strip and the displacement of Gazan civilians. Arab states supporting, let alone proposing, a plan that excludes Hamas from the government of Gaza is a substantial breakthrough in regional talks on Israel-Palestine. That said, it remains to be seen here, especially given the weakness and unpopularity of the Palestinian Authority (not to mention the Netanyahu government’s past opposition to ceding any control of Gaza to the PA). 
→ This weekend, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun visited Saudi Arabia in an attempt to boost relations. Aoun and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman released a joint statement following their meeting, reaffirming support for the Lebanese armed forces and encouraging Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon.   

 

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