Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest

Middle East

→ On Monday, Israel proposed a 45-day ceasefire deal that would see 10 Israeli hostages released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas is reportedly reviewing the proposal. During these 45 days, negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would begin again and humanitarian aid into Gaza would resume. Israel is also proposing disarmament in Gaza.

→ On Tuesday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said he was neither “overly optimistic nor pessimistic” about ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks following last weekend’s meeting in Oman. Talks will reportedly resume in Rome on Saturday. Since the first meeting, the Iranian rial has appreciated by approximately 20%, signaling potential for economic relief for Iranians affected by international sanctions. Tehran, however, still appears to be approaching the negotiations with some degree of caution due, in part, to President Trump’s prior withdrawal from the 2015 JCPOA.

Trump and the Republicans were critical of President Obama’s JCPOA because it allowed Iran to keep a civilian nuclear program and did not address Iran’s regional aggression via proxy actors. Last week, however, Trump envoy Steve Witkoff said that the US was open to allowing Iran to maintain a closely monitored civilian program and that the only goal of the talks is to prevent weaponization. That more limited objective mirrors the original JCPOA.  President Trump is rarely concerned about contradicting himself, but we expect some on the left to aggressively question why Trump withdrew from the original nuclear agreement only to propose a similar solution years later and others on the right to criticize the administration for failing to extract greater concessions from Iran.
We are also watching to see when and how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu weighs in. Netanyahu wants to see Iran stripped of its nuclear capabilities and its regional foreign policy pared down. However, given everything happening in Gaza, the prospect of US-facilitated Saudi-Israeli normalization, and the PM’s own tenuous grip on power, Netanyahu cannot risk again landing on Trump’s bad side. With that in mind, we expect him to keep his misgivings about US-Iran diplomacy out of the press (for now).
If we start to see stories about Israeli skepticism toward the Iran talks, or leaked intelligence showing that Iran has lied in the past about weaponization plans – such leaks almost always come, directly or indirectly, from Israel – that could spell future tension between Netanyahu and Trump.

→ The Trump administration has begun talks with Saudi Arabia on nuclear technology exchanges and the potential for uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia. President Biden pursued a similar deal tied to normalization with Israel. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright has not explicitly commented on whether Israel would be involved in the talks. The cost of oil and deterrence against Iran will likely also be discussed.

  International Affairs

→ On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that there is still no clear outline of a US-Russia deal on Ukraine. Peskov reiterated that Russia remained committed to the negotiations. However, it is unclear whether Ukraine’s wishes are being fully represented in these talks. In the meantime, the conflict is continuing apace. On Sunday, Russia struck a holiday gathering in Sumy, Ukraine, killing at least 34.

→ An internal Trump administration memo reportedly suggests cutting nearly half of the State Department’s funding for the next fiscal year. These cuts would affect funding for international organizations like the UN and NATO, which runs through State, as well humanitarian assistance and global health programs. This change would be part of the Trump administration’s wider efforts to cut government spending. All budgetary changes are subject to congressional approval. Federal agencies must submit a detailed reorganization plan to the White House this week to support widespread budget cuts. Already, some congressmen have come out against the proposed State Department cuts, claiming that it would leave the US vulnerable to China and Russia.

→ Hungary’s parliament passed a constitutional amendment banning public LGBTQ+ events on Monday. The amendment also prohibits the “depiction or promotion of homosexuality” to minors. Its passage by a vote of 140 to 21 has raised international concerns about the protection of LGBTQ+ rights in Europe.

→ Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared an economic emergency. Key oil revenues have stagnated since several countries, including the US, sanctioned Maduro for electoral fraud. The country’s inflation is estimated to be nearing 200%. Inflation has been a problem for Venezuela throughout most of Maduro’s presidency and the government’s efforts to this point have failed to promote any substantial improvement.

→ Fighting between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has now continued for over two years. Just this weekend, at least 300 people were killed during an attack by the RSF on two refugee camps in the Darfur region. Over half of Sudan now faces hunger, with many experiencing acute famine. Neither the Sudanese military nor the RSF appears willing to cede ground and will likely extend the conflict for the foreseeable future.

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