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Interfor’s Weekly Digest Global Security and Policy Insights- April 8, 2025
| Middle East → On Monday, Donald Trump announced that the US and Iran would hold direct nuclear talks this Saturday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted online that the talks would be held in Oman, with another Iranian official stating that talks would only proceed through Omani intermediaries. Trump likely caught his Iranian counterparts off-guard in publicly announcing direct talks. The Iranians clearly do not yet want it advertised that they are open to direct talks; just in the last two weeks we saw the Supreme Leader crack open the door to indirect talks. Moreover, Iran likely wanted the talks kept quiet until it was clear whether or not there was enough common ground to warrant optimism regarding an agreement. No Iranian politician wants to be seen out on a limb engaging with American counterparts when talks are still likely to fail. Such a scenario would likely see them disparaged by hardliners for trusting the US in the first place. However we got here, these talks do represent an opportunity for improved regional stability. Once he enters into negotiations, Trump has an extreme bias for reaching a deal, meaning he may be willing to make more concessions than we would otherwise expect based on his administration’s policy positions. Still, the Trump administration and the Iranian leadership are significantly farther apart than their Obama-era predecessors were ten years ago when they agreed to the original nuclear deal. Trump wants greater concessions from Iran, but Iran, if anything, has more leverage following years of uranium enrichment and other advances (made possible by Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the JCPOA in 2018). If Trump agrees to a deal that fails to impose greater constraints on Iran than the JCPOA, he will face criticism from Iran hawks in the US and Israel, who want to see Iran’s nuclear program completely dismantled. → Egypt reportedly put forward a ceasefire proposal to Israeli and Hamas negotiators. The plan provides for the release of 8 living hostages and 8 slain hostages in exchange for the release of a significant amount of Palestinian prisoners and a 40-70 day truce. The proposal does not commit Israel to ending the war. Neither side has issued a formal response to the proposal. Meanwhile, IDF ground operations remain ongoing. → The IDF shot and killed 15 emergency workers in Gaza late last week. The IDF claims that the vehicle was suspected of carrying terrorists and, after an intelligence review, that several of the slain workers were connected to Hamas. However, the workers were traveling in an ambulance, sparking international concern over the safety of aid workers in Gaza. Investigations into the incident are underway. |
| International Affairs → On Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said they will take strong countermeasures to safeguard Chinese interests against Trump’s tariff policies. Following President Trump’s 34% increase in tariffs last week, state-backed investors in China are working to prop up their own markets in an effort to ward off a recession. Similarly, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated that the EU will negotiate with the US on tariffs but is also willing to take its own countermeasures, leaving open the possibility of a trade war with Europe. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs updated their recession probability estimate by 10% this weekend, citing concerns regarding Trump’s tariff policy. → Russian troops have retaken significant territory in the Kursk region in recent months, pushing Ukrainian forces back across the border. On Tuesday, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced it had retaken Guyevo, reducing the Ukrainian army’s already-diminishing hold on Russian territory. This Russian military victory further weakens Ukraine’s negotiating position, given Trump’s tepid support for Zelenskyy. → Anti-government protestors continue to demonstrate in Istanbul and other Turkish cities, forming the largest protest movement seen in Turkey in over a decade. The protests were triggered by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19th on corruption charges and center around the belief that Erdogan’s government has become too authoritarian and threatens the democratic rule of law. Since the protests began, over 2,000 people have been detained, including students and journalists. → South Korea will hold a snap election on June 3, 2025, to replace President Yoon Suk Yeol after he was removed from power for attempting to impose martial law. Yoon was formally dismissed by the Constitutional Court on Friday. Until then, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will be interim leader, tasked with mitigating the consequences of President Trump’s tariff policies. Lee Jae-myung, who nearly won in 2022 against former-President Yoon is expected to win his party’s nomination and go on to the general election. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our webinar about Misinformation and the Threat it poses to Democracies on our YouTube channel. Our latest blog posts discusses communications security on social messaging apps (like Signal). |