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German Elections: Outcome and Outlook for the Future
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Germany’s mainstream conservative party led by Friedrich Merz, won the national election held on February 23. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its votes, signaling a marked swing away from the left and toward the right, not just in Germany but in all of Europe.
This swing has been driven mainly by people’s desire to remain nationalist and the concern over the flooding of migrants. Europeans are making their voices heard: They seek to act in the best interests of their nations while preserving their own identities.. Concerns have been expressed that the influx of Ukrainian refugees, along with those from other regions, may lead to the dilution of cultural identities and the redistribution of valuable social resources.
Election Background
Merz is the opposition leader of the center-right Union bloc, which supports European unity and security. His party defeated Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor of the leftist SPD party, which received a record-low 16.4% of the votes. The election took place seven months ahead of schedule as Scholz’s coalition government collapsed in November.
The German Political System
Similar to the UK but differing from the US, the German government is based on a democratic parliamentary system. The head of state, known as the federal chancellor, is elected by the Bundestag, the German federal parliament, members of which are elected directly by votes of German citizens.
What’s Next?
Merz must now put together a coalition, and Scholz’s SPD party is the most realistic option. Merz has said he hopes to have a coalition ready by Easter — once he does, the 620 lawmakers in the Bundestag will vote to elect the next chancellor. The winner must have at least 316 votes.
Even though AfD came in second place in terms of votes, it could not join the coalition because of a “firewall” set up by Germany’s main parties following WWII, which bans parties deemed as extreme from joining the government.
AfD is considered extreme because of its strong anti-immigration stance. Party leader Alice Weidel supports “remigration,” which calls to deport migrants who have committed crimes. While Weidel and other AfD members present this as a security measure, critics argue that the term has been used by far-right groups to promote broader deportation policies. Björn Höcke, another prominent party figure, has been accused of using a banned Nazi slogan, “Alles für Deutschland,” everything for Germany.
Swinging to the Right — And What That Means for Germany and Europe
Germany is a regional power, a leading member of NATO, and a large supplier of weapons to Ukraine, second only to the US. Its two major challenges today are:
- Immigration: The Russia-Ukraine war has driven over a million Ukrainian refugees into Germany, causing a strain on its social welfare system. Additionally, spates of violent crimes perpetrated by migrants have caused an outcry, not only from extremist parties like AfD but from all parties across the political spectrum.
- Economy: Germany’s struggling economy is a major issue that voters want the new government to address. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany stopped heavily importing Russian gas, causing an increase in energy costs. Germany’s financial support of Ukraine has also put a strain on the national budget. Additionally, rising competition from China has challenged Germany’s automotive sector, traditionally strong and stable. Finally, Trump’s new tariffs present a looming trade crisis with the US.
These challenges have had a substantial impact on daily life, contributing to the highest voter turnout in the recent German elections since 1987..
The challenges are also a microcosm of what’s happening in the EU at large. The Russia-Ukraine War has served as the main driver of the energy crisis, economic struggles, and waves of immigration — and the swing to the right has shown that Europeans are demanding new solutions.
For additional resources and guidance, the Interfor team is here to help.