| Middle East → A renewed round of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran began last week, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. Iran has pushed for a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the U.S. blockade on Iran’s ports, but the U.S. is insisting on some form of nuclear concession up front as well. President Trump is reportedly willing to offer sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, though he denied these reports on Monday. Coming out of the new talks, it is clear that Iran is effectively interested in a return to the June Memorandum of Understanding, which was centered on reopening Hormuz in exchange for an end to the U.S. blockade, with a roadmap to advance nuclear negotiations. Trump, however, believes that Iran’s leverage is in decline with more oil successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and he is therefore reluctant to compromise on the current state of affairs without an upfront nuclear concession from Iran. Inside the Islamic Republic’s leadership, there is little eagerness to concede anything beyond what was offered in the M.O.U., which would in effect be an acknowledgment that the I.R.G.C. erred in launching the tanker attacks that led to the deal’s collapse in July. Altogether, we assess that a deal is unlikely in the near term. And yet, the return to talks in and of itself could lower the risk of escalation for the next several weeks, likely through the U.S. election in November. → On Saturday, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen intercepted two drones and two missiles headed toward Riyadh and Khamis Mushait. Recent Houthi attacks have targeted Saudi commercial and energy centers, as well as shipping infrastructure, raising concerns about further economic disruption amid the U.S.-Iran war. Saudi Arabia reportedly met with allies Pakistan and Turkey on Saturday to discuss military cooperation against the Houthis under the newly signed Mecca Defense Agreement. As of now, expectations remain low that Pakistan or Turkey will volunteer significant support for Saudi operations against the Houthis. For the moment, the Saudis themselves have yet to mount a major ground effort to oppose the Houthis, but if they chose to do so, it is hard to imagine either Pakistan or Turkey joining them in such an operation. To do so would put both states at odds with Iran, with whom they both share borders, and put them directly at risk of being attacked as part of the broader regional conflict. Moreover, Pakistan has a large Shiite community, among whom Iran has cultivated influence, which could cause problems for the government in the event it decides to oppose Iran more directly. International Affairs → On Sunday, a counterterrorism investigation was launched in Gloucestershire after authorities identified suspected activity near R.A.F. Fairford, a U.S.-operated base used for air operations against Iran. Five men were arrested on suspicion of explosives offenses and preparing a terrorist act. The arrests followed a report of three suspicious vehicles traveling toward the base, prompting authorities to evacuate approximately 85 nearby households and deploy military bomb-disposal specialists. Investigators have since released the five men on police bail as no viable explosives were found in their vehicles and no evidence has emerged establishing a link between the suspects and Iran. → On Thursday and Friday, African leaders renewed calls for permanent representation in the U.N. Security Council during the General Assembly, arguing that the continent remains excluded from the body. African countries currently hold three rotating seats on the 15-member council but none of its five permanent seats. The African Union is seeking at least two permanent and five non-permanent seats for African countries. → On Saturday, Bangkok’s governor declared the city a disaster zone after days of intense rainfall inundated roads and residential areas across parts of the Thai capital. Nearly 12 inches of rain fell between Thursday and Saturday, overwhelming canals and drainage infrastructure and leaving some areas under waist-high water. The military established emergency shelters and temporary kitchens, while residents near canals were advised to move belongings to higher ground and avoid unnecessary travel. Approximately 7,000 people took shelter, while Thai authorities said pumping stations were operating at full capacity and drainage could take several days. Flooding has also disrupted air travel, with Thai Airways canceling flights and continuing to process delayed baggage from dozens of earlier flights. → On Monday, French authorities detained 164 people amid a growing wave of student demonstrations and blockades that disrupted approximately 180 schools nationwide. The demonstrations began around Paris over teacher shortages, overcrowded classrooms, deteriorating school facilities, and education funding, but have since spread to the rest of the country. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez reported that security personnel, students, and school staff were injured amid reports of vandalism, fires, and fireworks being launched at police. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu urged protesters to avoid further escalation, as student unions called for additional blockades alongside planned walkouts by teachers, hospital workers, and civil servants. → On Monday, Argentina’s President Javier Milei gave the U.K. two weeks to halt development of the Sea Lion offshore oilfield near the disputed Falkland Islands or face international legal action. The project, led by Israel’s Navitas Petroleum and Britain’s Rockhopper Exploration, is expected to begin production in 2028 and could significantly increase oil production from the islands. Argentina plans to seek an emergency order from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and has also proposed tougher penalties against companies extracting resources around the islands without Argentine authorization. The U.K. rejects Argentina’s sovereignty claim and maintains that Falkland Islanders have the right to determine their political status and develop the territory’s natural resources. → Myanmar’s military is increasingly using lightweight recreational aircraft, including motorized paragliders and gyrocopters, to carry out bombing attacks against towns and villages controlled by resistance forces. The relatively inexpensive aircraft can operate from improvised locations and fly at low altitudes, allowing the military to conduct strikes in areas where conventional aircraft may be less practical. Their growing use adds to the military’s use of fighter jets and drones to maintain its air advantage as resistance groups challenge government forces on the ground. The development comes amid a broader expansion of aerial warfare in Myanmar, where resistance groups have also adapted commercial drones for reconnaissance and attacks against military positions. Cyber → Milan prosecutors are investigating a foreign national for suspected computer scam as fraudsters used AI-enabled impersonation to convince Italian bank Fideuram, the private banking arm of Intesa Sanpaolo, to transfer approximately €95 million to overseas accounts. The scheme began with a WhatsApp message appearing to come from Intesa Sanpaolo C.E.O. Carlo Messina, followed by a phone call in which A.I. was reportedly used to replicate the voice of a senior Italian lawyer and confirm the transaction. Fideuram subsequently detected irregularities. Authorities have recovered approximately €53 million through cooperation among Italy, China, and Portugal, while around €36 million remains missing after being routed through overseas accounts and converted into cryptocurrency. → The F.B.I. is investigating a major data breach claimed by the hacking group ShinyHunters that appears to have exposed sensitive information belonging to thousands of current and former agency personnel. Samples reviewed reportedly include names, home addresses, phone numbers, badge numbers, job titles, information about spouses, and medical records, raising concerns about phishing, harassment, physical attacks, and foreign intelligence recruitment. ShinyHunters has threatened to publish the stolen databases unless the F.B.I. retracts a May 2026 cybersecurity advisory that the group claims offended its members, rather than demanding a financial ransom. Current and former agents have raised concerns about the potential security implications for undercover personnel and their families. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. |
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