Ukraine Drone Attack on Russian Warplanes

Ukraine’s Surprise Drone Attack: What Will It Mean for the Russia-Ukraine War?

In a surprise attack, Ukraine launched 117 drones at Russian airfields, spanning from eastern Siberia to Russia’s western border. Russian officials said the drones caused no casualties but hit dozens of Russian aircrafts, inflicting billions of dollars worth of damage and marking one of Ukraine’s most successful long-range operations in the four-year war. 

The attacks, dubbed Operation Spider’s Web by Ukraine, involved planting drones with attached explosives near military bases across Russia and activating them simultaneously. The drones were secretly transported into Russia by trucks carrying wooden crates rigged to self-destruct once the drones were released. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the attacks as “absolutely brilliant,” but in the midst of celebrating, said he hoped Russia has seen its vulnerabilities and will be more open to a diplomatic solution. 

Will Operation Spider’s Web Change the Course of the War?

Russian war bloggers have called the Ukrainian drone attack “Russia’s Pearl Harbor,” but this is an inexact comparison with regard to damage. Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 killed nearly 2,500 US service personnel, destroyed over 150 aircraft, and sank or damaged eight US battleships. 

The numbers in Russia don’t come close to those of Pearl Harbor. While significant damage was inflicted on Russia’s long-range aviation force, there were no casualties. Moreover, reports range from 13 to 41 damaged Russian aircraft, a far cry from the 150 aircraft damaged in the Pearl Harbor attack. 

The Pearl Harbor comparison likely references:

• The significance of the event: The Pearl Harbor attack was a turning point in World War II, causing the US to enter the fray — will this be a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for four years with no end in sight?
• The response: Will Russia’s response be of the same scope as that of the US in WWII? Russian war blogger Roman Alekhin wrote that he hopes the Russian response will be the same, or more. For a country that’s already viewed as the aggressor by most Western countries, a response of the same proportion could be disastrous for Ukraine. Alternatively, many observers believe if Russia had the ability to dial up their onslaught further, they would have done so previously.

Operation Spider’s Web: A Show of Ukrainian Strength and Capabilities

Some military analysts have compared Operation Spider’s Web to the Israeli beeper operation in Lebanon last year, when the Mossad simultaneously detonated beepers used by Hezbollah members. The coordinated detonations killed at least nine people and wounded about 2,800. 

While there are no reported casualties from the Ukrainian drone attack, the two attacks share several common threads: Covert, skillful planning, advanced technology, and coordination. But more than the elements required to pull off such surprise attacks, the results may prove similar. The beeper attacks severely weakened Hezbollah and showed that Israel is a major force to be reckoned with. Ukraine, which has been the underdog throughout the war, with a failed drone attack just a few months ago, has also shown its strength with Operation Spider’s Web. The question is, will Russia respect it and make concessions at the negotiating table, or increase its military operations? Or will nothing change?

As of now, the recent meetings between delegations from Russia and Ukraine in Turkey have resulted in a prisoner exchange, but the two countries are no closer to a ceasefire agreement. With weapons and ingenuity on both sides, Ukraine and Russia will continue to incur losses of property and lives until a ceasefire can be achieved. 

The broader question to ponder is, is this a watershed moment in the evolution of military history, as drone warfare has undeniably demonstrated it’s game changing effect on the battlefield. Military leaders around the world are undoubtedly redoubling their efforts to develop their offensive drone capabilities, as well as defensive countermeasures, in the wake of this successful strike.