Global Security and Policy Insights- June 3, 2025
| Middle East → The IAEA released a confidential report on Sunday claiming that Iran has increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approaching weapons grade). In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed continued international cooperation and claimed that all nuclear activities are within international frameworks. Despite denials by Iranian ministers, the IAEA, which conducts regular reviews in Iran, claimed that there has been a 50% increase in highly enriched uranium (a step away from weapons grade) since February 2025. The controversy comes amid ongoing nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. On Saturday, the US presented a proposal that would allow limited low-level uranium enrichment for a specific allotment of time, contradicting earlier statement by the Trump administration about a strict ban on nuclear enrichment. → Ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are again at an impasse, after Hamas gave a noncommittal response to the latest ceasefire proposal by US envoy Steve Witkoff. The core issue is whether the deal will contain language of a “permanent” ceasefire or a temporary one. Meanwhile, aid distribution in Gaza has generated controversy after IDF troops fired on a group of Gazans approaching aid distribution sites. Gazan health authorities and the UN claim that the IDF killed at least 20 civilians, though the IDF claims that troops fired warning shots and are investigating claims of civilian fatalities. The IDF is cautioning Gazan civilians to remain within the pre-approved distribution areas and routes. Neither party is particularly incentivized to reach a deal. Hamas likely has under 25 remaining living hostages and risks losing their best leverage — and human shields — by entering another deal. Netanyahu risks losing control of his already-shaky coalition and failing to accomplish his primary war aim, the destruction of Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, by entering into another deal. From a US perspective, Trump appears to be growing increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress and with Netanyahu’s political obstinance. As talks with Iran, and potentially Gulf allies progress, Trump may lose his patience with Netanyahu, applying sufficient pressure to reach a deal. |
| International Affairs → Chaos erupted on the streets of Paris as the celebrations of Paris Saint Germain’s first Champions League title turned into riots. Two people died and nearly 200 were injured in the riots, with 260 vehicles burned and over 500 people detained. Thousands of police officers were deployed to suppress the riots, using teargas and pepper spray on civilians. Some conservative ministers are claiming that a small segment of the population took advantage of the celebrations to provoke police, while those on the left are criticizing the use of force by police. → Over the weekend, Ukraine launched a drone attack targeting at least four Russian air bases, destroying several strategic bombers. Aerial footage of the area suggests that the attack was largely successful and may be enough to cause a shift in Russia’s air defense strategy. Unlike previous attacks, this strike reached deep into Russia, demonstrating increased Ukrainian air capabilities. → Inflation fell to 1.9% in the EU, allowing the European Central Bank (ECB) to support growth to combat President Trump’s tariff policies. The ECB will meet on Thursday to determine further potential measures. They are expected to lower interest rates to stimulate domestic activity and investment. → South Korean exit polls suggest that Lee Jae-myung, a left-leaning politician, may win the presidential election. Lee has pledged to expand the country’s alliance with the US, however does not want to do so at the expense of a prosperous relationship with Russia or China. South Korea already has significant ties to both China and the US, with the former acting as its largest trading partner and the latter maintaining a significant military presence in the country. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on South Korea, though it has been paused. Lee could meet with Trump in late June if he is elected. US → On Sunday, June 1, a man threw Molotov cocktails into a crowd of elderly Jews (age 52 to 88) gathered to call for the release of Israeli hostages in Boulder, Colorado, injuring at least six. The attacker, Mohamad Soliman, was recorded shouting “Free Palestine” and “end the Zionists” by onlookers. Soliman is being investigated by the FBI for the “targeted act of terrorism” and has been charged with a federal hate crime. |
| Resources: US Department of State Travel Advisories CISA: nation-state cybersecurity threats and other resources for cybersecurity matters. Check out our newly enhanced media hub. Our latest blog reviews recent airline safety issues. |
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