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Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest - February 25, 2025

Interfor International‘s Weekly Security Digest – February 25, 2025

Interfor’s Weekly Digest Global Security and Policy Insights 

GLOBAL SECURITY MATTERS

Middle East 
→ With Phase 1 of the ceasefire/hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas due to end on March 1, US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is scheduled to travel to the region tomorrow to mediate talks. He is expected to pursue an extension of Phase 1 of the ceasefire, enabling Israel to receive additional living hostages while not committing to an end to the conflict. There remain several open questions around a longer-term deal, including the future of Gaza’s political leadership, the disarmament of Hamas, and the fate of the remaining 63 hostages. 
Hamas’ pathway to staying in power in Gaza is narrowing. Recent shows of force during hostage release proceedings seem to have backfired for the group, highlighting that an armed terror group continues to govern Gaza in a time where key Arab states like the UAE and KSA are deciding where to come down on allowing Hamas to stay in power vs. siding with Trump and Netanyahu and endorsing a Hamas-free post-war plan for Gaza. Still, Hamas is unlikely to disappear, especially given its support base in the West Bank.  
→ Israel has been steadily escalating its operations in the West Bank for months. This week, the IDF sent in tanks for the first time since the early 2000s, following a thwarted bombing attack in central Israel. The IDF alleges that the attack was orchestrated by Hamas and coordinated with its operatives in the West Bank. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF was adapting its playbook from Gaza to the West Bank to avert further terrorist activity. Over 40,000 Palestinians have been internally displaced as a result of the operation on large refugee camps in the northern West Bank, thus far.  
International Affairs  
→ The center-right Christian Democrats won the most votes in Germany’s parliamentary elections this weekend, situating Friedrich Merz as the likely candidate for Germany’s next chancellor.  Germany’s far right AfD also received double the amount of votes it did in previous elections, following public support from the Trump administration and Elon Musk. Since the election, Merz has spoken publicly about Europe’s need to “establish an independent European defense capability” rather than rely on the US’s security umbrella. These comments come after President Trump’s threats of a trade war and less military assistance.  
→ The United States sided with Russia for two UN votes on Ukraine this week. The US opposed a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and reaffirming Ukraine’s sovereignty. In doing so, they voted in parallel with Iran and North Korea. Additionally, the UN Security Council passed a resolution confirming neutrality in the war on Ukraine, which the Russian Ambassador to the UN claimed was a welcome step toward a settlement. Several European member states spoke out in support of Ukraine after the resolution passed, criticizing the push for the “capitulation of the victim.” 
→ The Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo claimed that over 7,000 people have died since January 2025 due to the violence of M23, a rebel group. An additional 450,000 people are internally displaced. M23 has captured much of the eastern DRC, raising fears that they will take advantage of valuable mineral deposits, risking the economic stability of the country and the possibility of an expanded conflict.
 → With the world’s attention on Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis, Somali pirates have reemerged as a threat in the Indian Ocean. For the first time since 2017, there has been an increase in Somali pirate hijackings in the area. The Indian Ocean High Risk Area was revoked by maritime trade organizations in early 2023, leading many shippers to cease policies of hiring armed guards and increased protective practices. Should hijackings increase significantly in the Indian Ocean, it may cause an increase in shipping costs and times. 

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